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China is not Manipulating its Currency: US Treasury

November 28, 2012
When President Obama has a private lunch with Romney, his recent rival, tomorrow, one issue that is unlikely to be discussed is the Administration's decision not to charge China with manipulating the yuan.  Romney said he would cite them on his first day in office.                                               
The US used to cite China as a m…
China is not Manipulating its Currency: US Treasury China is not Manipulating its Currency: US Treasury Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Components of the Fiscal Cliff

November 19, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic from Also Sprach Analyst blog, who picked it up from Deutsche Bank.  It shows the seven main components of the fiscal cliff.
The press is full of stories claiming that the framework of an agreement may be taking shape.  The reports suggest  a two-prong approach.  The first is some agreement to reduce next year's defici…
Great Graphic: Components of the Fiscal Cliff Great Graphic: Components of the Fiscal Cliff Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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Narrow Ranges on End of Bretton Woods Anniversary

August 15, 2012
The US dollar has been confined to ranges against the major foreign currencies that have largely been seen already this week.   The exchange rates may feel fixed now, but they are not and today, in fact marks the 41st anniversary of the end of the Bretton Woods agreement. They are churning as the players mark time in lieu of fresh incentives and …
Narrow Ranges on End of Bretton Woods Anniversary Narrow Ranges on End of Bretton Woods Anniversary Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2012 Rating: 5
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Tug-of-War Keeps FX Choppy

July 20, 2012
Choppy trading conditions continue to prevail.   Some suspect these conditions are the result of lighter summer conditions.  However, it might instead by a tug-of-war between the poor US data on one hand and the unstable situation in Europe that is pushing Spanish 10-year yields above 7% and 2-year yields above 5%.  Similar Italian benchmark yiel…
Tug-of-War Keeps FX Choppy Tug-of-War Keeps FX Choppy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Initial Anxiety Stemmed, More Later and 6 Observations

May 07, 2012
The mostly as expected election results sparked a quick but dramatic bout risk-off activity. Equities have been sold (with Greek equities crushed, off more than 6% late in the local session, with a 13% loss in financials) and core bonds are firm, including French bonds.   In fact, the French premium over Germany in both the short (2-year) and long…
Initial Anxiety Stemmed, More Later and 6 Observations Initial Anxiety Stemmed, More Later and 6 Observations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Today's Developments and 4 Important Observations

March 26, 2012
The US dollar is broadly firmer against the major currencies to start the week, but remains well confined to ranges seen at the end of last week. The market lacks conviction after shrugging off the disappointing European flash PMIs last week. Even though Italian and Spanish bonds are firmer today, outperforming Germany, we detect a deterioration o…
Today's Developments and 4 Important Observations Today's Developments and 4 Important Observations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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PSI Update

March 06, 2012
Uncertainty over the participation in the Greek bond swap is a major source of anxiety today. Rumors circulated earlier that the PSI "invitation" would be extended by a week due to low participation have been officially denied, but rumors themselves illustrate the market's apprehensions.
It does appear that participation will be su…
PSI Update PSI Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Don't Lose Sleep over China's Fewer Treasury Holdings

March 01, 2012
Want more on China? See this piece I did back in 2010.

Revisions to the holdings of US Treasuries have set the chins wagging.  The key focus is on China's holdings of Treasuries. 
While the new data revised sharply higher June 2011 Chinese holdings to $1.307 trillion from $1.165 trillion the data points to a sharp decline in the second half …
Don't Lose Sleep over China's Fewer Treasury Holdings Don't Lose Sleep over China's Fewer Treasury Holdings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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G20: Little Room for Fresh Initiatives

February 24, 2012
The G20 will meet in Mexico this weekend. There seems to be three key issues: IMF funding, replacement for Zoellick who will step down as head of the World Bank and the oil shock. It is unlikely that any of these issues are resolved this G20 meeting, but important groundwork could be laid for future decisions. 
The European debt crisis remains the …
G20: Little Room for Fresh Initiatives G20: Little Room for Fresh Initiatives Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Ten Observations To Start the Week

February 13, 2012
1.The approval by the Greek parliament of the latest austerity package now shifts the focus to the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers on Wednesday for their support. The new austerity proved too much for the Greek government and a cabinet reshuffle is needed. Political pressure will mount to set a date for the elections. The successful Greek v…
Ten Observations To Start the Week Ten Observations To Start the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Problem with Success

February 05, 2012
Failures are humbling and costly, but ultimately it is success that is more challenging.

The strains which broke the back of the economic and financial system emanated from its successes. Years of economic growth produced surpluses in Asia after the 1997-1998 financial crisis, and emerging markets more generally, that could not absorbed. These surp…
The Problem with Success The Problem with Success Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Rumor Bought, Fact Sold, and Other FX Developments

January 13, 2012
The euro extended its recovery in early Europe but reversed course after the lukewarm Italian bond auction.  Italy raised the funds it sought and yields did fall at the shorter term auction, but increase at the longer term and the bid-covers were on the low side.   
In some ways, this is the best Italy might be able to hope for given that the marke…
Rumor Bought, Fact Sold, and Other FX Developments Rumor Bought, Fact Sold, and Other FX Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Bullard ahead of Bernanke

February 08, 2010
Much attention will be given the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's mid-week testimony before the House Finance Committee. He is expected to provide more details about the Fed's exit strategy.
Atlanta Fed President Bullard is quoted on a news wire that might be anticipating Bernanke's testimony. First in terms of the economy itself, B…
Bullard ahead of Bernanke Bullard ahead of Bernanke Reviewed by magonomics on February 08, 2010 Rating: 5
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T-Bills

November 23, 2009
With U.S. T-bill yields hovering near zero, today's weekly bill auctions may attract more general market attention than usual. Here is what is going on: due to the approaching debt ceiling, the US debt managers have reduced T-bill sales. At the same time, the demand for short-term paper is great.
T-Bills T-Bills Reviewed by magonomics on November 23, 2009 Rating: 5
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Q4 US Borrowing Slashed

November 02, 2009
Late yesterday the US Treasury announced a dramatic cut in its anticipated borrowing requirements for this quarter. The net borrowing is expected to now be near $276 bln. This is down by almost half (43%) from the previous estimate of $486 bln.
Q4 US Borrowing Slashed Q4 US Borrowing Slashed Reviewed by magonomics on November 02, 2009 Rating: 5
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US Treasury Supply Continues

October 26, 2009
The US Treasury will auction a record $123 bln of notes and bonds this week, adding to the $1.1 trillion net sales already this year. It is interesting to review who is buying all this paper.
US Treasury Supply Continues US Treasury Supply Continues Reviewed by magonomics on October 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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Treasuries and the Dollar

October 19, 2009
At the end of Sept, the IMF COFER data showed euro and yen reserve holdings rose faster than dollar holdings, even though dollar holdings rose as well. We are reluctant to read a new trend into one quarter's report. In addition, the TIC data shows foreign investors continue to increase their Treasury holdings.
Treasuries and the Dollar Treasuries and the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 19, 2009 Rating: 5
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Treasury Supply Weighs on Dollar Sentiment

October 05, 2009
The US Treasury sells $78 bln in notes and bonds this week and $60 bln in bills. The continued deluge of supply weighs on dollar sentiment, especially given indications from the G7 that the pain threshold to stop the dollar's decline has not been reached. The auctions begin with $7 bln 10-year inflation protected security and the bills toda…
Treasury Supply Weighs on Dollar Sentiment Treasury Supply Weighs on Dollar Sentiment Reviewed by magonomics on October 05, 2009 Rating: 5
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Fed Slowing Treasury Purchases?

June 12, 2009
Ten year Treasury yields are flat on the week after yesterday's strong rebound and limited follow through today. Yet the sharp rise in yields, including mortgages and agency bonds, had prompted speculation that the Fed would have to step up its purchases and there was even some talk that it could not wait until the next FOMC meeting which sche…
Fed Slowing Treasury Purchases? Fed Slowing Treasury Purchases? Reviewed by magonomics on June 12, 2009 Rating: 5
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10-Year Auction

June 10, 2009
The US auction was fairly well received. The bid-cover ratio was 2.62. This compares with 2.47 last month and an average of 2.40 in the past ten auctions. Indirect bidders, which include central banks, took down 34.2%, this is a modest increase from the 31.9% in May and an average of just below 26% in the last ten auctions. Despite these tradition…
10-Year Auction 10-Year Auction Reviewed by magonomics on June 10, 2009 Rating: 5
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