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Capital Markets Look for Direction

April 12, 2021
Overview: Risk appetites have not returned from the weekend.  Equities are heavy, and bond yields softer.  The dollar is drifting lower in Europe.  China's unusually candid admission of the shortcomings of its vaccine and record new cases in India saw all the equity markets in the region fall.  Only South Korea and Taiwan escaped the carnage t…
Capital Markets Look for Direction Capital Markets Look for Direction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 12, 2021 Rating: 5
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Darkest Before Dawn

January 16, 2021
The upcoming economic news is likely to be dreadful, and if it is not dreadful, it will be mostly ignored. This includes the release of the preliminary January PMI figures at the end of the week. Japan is extending its national emergency to another five prefectures, which collectively account for over half of the nation's GDP.  Germany's M…
Darkest Before Dawn Darkest Before Dawn Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 16, 2021 Rating: 5
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Five Points for Hump Day

October 22, 2013
We see five developments that investors note:
1. Disappointing US employment data removed a potential obstacle to the foreign exchange adjustment to the newly appreciated recognition that Fed tapering is increasingly unlikely this year. As we noted previously, the private sector and Fed data released during the government shutdown pointed to some …
Five Points for Hump Day Five Points for Hump Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 22, 2013 Rating: 5
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The Investment Climate in Six Points

October 20, 2013
1.  Long-term interest rates may have bottomed several months ago, but rate will remain low for several more months.  It is becoming clearer to many that the Federal Reserve is most likely not going to reduce the $85 bln of long-term securities it is purchasing every month.   The BOJ remains committed to buying the equivalent of $75 bln of assets …
The Investment Climate in Six Points The Investment Climate in Six Points Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 20, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Little Changed; No Default Tomorrow even without Agreement

October 16, 2013
There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crises, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice, not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on a life of their own. October 17 most certainly does not represent the deadline on a US default. 
The U…
Dollar Little Changed; No Default Tomorrow even without Agreement Dollar Little Changed; No Default Tomorrow even without Agreement Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: International Ownership of US Treasuries

October 09, 2013
This Great Graphic shows the international holders of US Treasuries as of July. The graph was posted on CNNMoney.  
Of the roughly $5.6 trillion worth of Treasuries held abroad, $2.42 trillion, or about 43% is accounted for by two countries, China and Japan.  If anything, China's figures may be under-estimated.  Often the data is revised that …
Great Graphic: International Ownership of US Treasuries Great Graphic: International Ownership of US Treasuries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Five Shocks Push Investors Off Balance

April 21, 2013
Archimedes said that if he had a lever long enough and a place to put his feet, he could move the world. Investors have access to incredible pools of capital and can lever immensely. They thought they had some place to put their feet.

The foothold was made of several planks. The unorthodox monetary experiment and large deficit were inflationar…
Five Shocks Push Investors Off Balance Five Shocks Push Investors Off Balance Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Is the UK Going where Japan Didn't Dare?

March 12, 2013
Threats by Japan's Prime Minster Abe to changed the BOJ's charter faced broad criticism for threatening the independence of the central bank. Some officials reacted more strongly to this than to the bilateral exchange rate targets some officials were suggesting.

Abe has since backed away from changing the BOJ's mandate, as his candi…
Is the UK Going where Japan Didn't Dare? Is the UK Going where Japan Didn't Dare? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 12, 2013 Rating: 5
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Deep Dive: Financial Repression Reconsidered Deep Dive: Financial Repression Reconsidered Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 17, 2013 Rating: 5
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