Results for Treasuries
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Seasonal Patterns in FX: Caveat Emptor

May 04, 2021
Seasonal patterns in agricultural commodities seem intuitively easier to understand than seasonal patterns in the foreign exchange market, where the turnover far and away exceeds the international trade.  Often analysts and journalists claim a seasonal pattern in the dollar that does not meet a robust statistical standard.  The sample size is freq…
Seasonal Patterns in FX: Caveat Emptor Seasonal Patterns in FX:  Caveat Emptor Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2021 Rating: 5
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Turkey Drags EM Lower while US Yields Soften Ahead of Supply

March 22, 2021
Overview:  Equities in the Asia Pacific region and Europe found little support from the lower bond yields.  Chinese, Taiwanese, and Australian equities managed to post modest gains.  A fire at a Renesas auto chip facility in Japan weighed on auto shares.  This yet another disruption in chip production which was already estimated to cut global auto…
Turkey Drags EM Lower while US Yields Soften Ahead of Supply Turkey Drags EM Lower while US Yields Soften Ahead of Supply Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 22, 2021 Rating: 5
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Markets Snap Back

February 01, 2021
Overview: Global equities are snapping back today, while the greenback retained the strength seen last week that was attributed to safe-haven flows.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day decline led by Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Indonesia.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx is up around 1.1% after losing a little more than 3% last wee…
Markets Snap Back Markets Snap Back Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2021 Rating: 5
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Markets Look for more Solid Footing, but Need to Get Passed US Jobs Data

September 04, 2020
Overview: The dramatic sell-off of US shares yesterday is the main focus, capturing the limelight from other forces, including today's US employment report.  It was the third-worst session for the S&P 500 since the March 23 bottom, and the other two did not see follow-through selling.  Asia Pacific shares tumbled, led by Australia's 3%…
Markets Look for more Solid Footing, but Need to Get Passed US Jobs Data Markets Look for more Solid Footing, but Need to Get Passed US Jobs Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2020 Rating: 5
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Look Out

May 02, 2020
With the release of the US and EU GDP figures, Q1 is behind us. Amidst the great uncertainty, there is at least one thing that is clear. The current quarter is going to be worse, even if not for China. The good news is that with lockdowns gradually easing, the US and European Union, and parts of Asia are probably near the peak of the economic cont…
Look Out Look Out Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 02, 2020 Rating: 5
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US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone

May 16, 2019
Overview: Retail sales and industrial production disappointed in both the US and China prior to the end of the tariff truce, declared by the US in a series of presidential tweets on May 5.  The reaction function of the US to the drop in equities was to play down tensions on three fronts.  First, a US team is expected to return to Beijing in the co…
US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2019 Rating: 5
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Why China Finds it Difficult to Weaponize the Yuan and US Treasuries

May 14, 2019
It looks so easy on paper.  China can sell its holding of US Treasuries and/or weaken the yuan to offset the tariffs and boost exports.  It is the first and easy answer from strategists, journalists, and some academics.   Often times, it is presented as a novel idea; as if diplomats, investors, and policymakers have not thought it. 
The point is no…
Why China Finds it Difficult to Weaponize the Yuan and US Treasuries Why China Finds it Difficult to Weaponize the Yuan and US Treasuries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2019 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion

February 02, 2019
The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days.  The important macro points are known.  The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase.   
Investors had been concerned about what has become known as "quantitative tightening&…
The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2019 Rating: 5
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Keep Fitch's Warning in Perspective

January 09, 2019
The global head of Fitch's sovereign ratings warned that the continued US government shutdown could jeopardize the AAA-status the rating agency grants America.  It spurred little market reaction (and for good reason).  
First, the rating cut is not imminent, though some of the headlines suggest otherwise.  Fitch's McCormack though was clea…
Keep Fitch's Warning in Perspective Keep Fitch's Warning in Perspective Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 09, 2019 Rating: 5
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Why Tariffs will Not Reduce the US Trade Deficit

August 13, 2018
When trying to work through the impact of US tariffs on its trade balance, one ought to keep in mind Orson Welles caution that if you want a happy ending, that of course, depends on where you end your story.   If one stops with simply the US tax on imports, it should reduce the quantity of imports by raising prices.  One might be tempted to conclu…
Why Tariffs will Not Reduce the US Trade Deficit Why Tariffs will Not Reduce the US Trade Deficit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2018 Rating: 5
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Central Bank Investment Strategies

July 09, 2018
A survey of central banks and sovereign wealth funds by Invesco sheds light on their investment plans.  The traditional separation of markets and the state may be helpful for ideological arguments, but the real situation is more complicated.  Central banks and their investment vehicles (sovereign wealth funds) are market participants.  In some act…
Central Bank Investment Strategies Central Bank Investment Strategies Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2018 Rating: 5
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