Results for Swiss National Bank
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FX: Little Movement, Much to Digest

June 14, 2012
The US dollar continues to sport a soft profile as market position adjustments ahead of the Greek election continues to dominate.  As anticipated, the market has mostly looked beyond Moody's three step downgrade of Spain's creditworthiness to Baa3.  Spanish 10-year yields pushed through 7% briefly, but rumors that ECB officials may have &…
FX: Little Movement, Much to Digest FX: Little Movement, Much to Digest Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Positioning and FX Technical Outlook: More Correction Ahead

June 09, 2012
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending June 5.  We assume that the report's coverage of speculative positioning is  representative of short-term trend followers and momentum players.   There were several noteworthy developments among speculative participants in the futures market.  
The highlights include:
New reco…
Positioning and FX Technical Outlook: More Correction Ahead Positioning and FX Technical Outlook: More Correction Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on Japanese and Swiss Reserve Figures

June 07, 2012
Japan and Switzerland released May reserve figures earlier today. They are both noteworthy, but for different reasons. Japanese reserves fell yet the BOJ did not intervene. Switzerland's reserves rose sharply as the SNB had to step up its intervention to defend its franc cap.
Japan's currency reserves fell by about $6.9 bln to $1.278 tr…
Thoughts on Japanese and Swiss Reserve Figures Thoughts on Japanese and Swiss Reserve Figures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Danish Dilemma: What the Euro Crisis has Wrought

May 31, 2012
Denmark, like Switzerland, offers negative interest rates.  This is not just bills either, but in Denmark's case, rates are negative through the 2-year tenor.  Swiss rates are negative through the 4-5 year sector.  The Danish situation is similar to Switzerland's.  
As money seeks refuge from the uncertainty in the euro zone, especially w…
The Danish Dilemma: What the Euro Crisis has Wrought The Danish Dilemma: What the Euro Crisis has Wrought Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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The SNB is Preventing Needed Adjustment

May 31, 2012
The Swiss National Bank does not miss an opportunity to remind market participants that it is determined to cap the Swiss franc's appreciation. The cost of imposing its will appears to be rising. The Financial Times today reports estimates of the magnitude of its intervention range from CHF20 bln to CHF100 bln in recent weeks. Such a wide r…
The SNB is Preventing Needed Adjustment The SNB is Preventing Needed Adjustment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Month-End Adjustment Gives Brief Reprieve

May 31, 2012
The US dollar is mostly softer against major and emerging market currencies today.  Many observers will talk about the string of better than expected data from Europe and the polls that suggest the ND are ahead in Greece and that the Irish will easily support the fiscal pact in today's referendum.  Yet the risk is that the firmer tone in the …
Month-End Adjustment Gives Brief Reprieve Month-End Adjustment Gives Brief Reprieve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Calmer Tone Ahead of the Weekend

May 25, 2012
A nervous and fragile calm has settled over the global capital markets.   The dollar has been thus far confined to yesterday's ranges against sterling and the euro, and attempts to push the dollar higher faltered against the yen and Swiss franc, leaving the greenback is narrowly mixed on the day.  European equities are mostly slightly firmer,…
Calmer Tone Ahead of the Weekend Calmer Tone Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Futures Positioning and Technical Outlook

May 05, 2012
The new Commitment of Traders report covers the week through May 1 and it shows that the dollar was sold by speculators across the board.  The net short euro, yen and Swiss franc positions were pared, while the net long sterling, Canadian and Australian dollars and Mexican peso positions were extended.  However, the dramatic price action in the d…
Currency Futures Positioning and Technical Outlook Currency Futures Positioning and Technical Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Some Interesting Developments by SNB and Norway's SWF

May 04, 2012
The Swiss National Bank reported its reserve figures yesterday and the increase in its sterling holdings are notable and may help explain the its relative strength, despite data a soft real sector reports, culminating in the news last week that, defying expectations, the UK economy contracted in Q1, the second consecutive quarter that the British…
Some Interesting Developments by SNB and Norway's SWF Some Interesting Developments by SNB and Norway's SWF Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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What are They Thinking?

April 11, 2012
In recent days, policy makers have been most noticeable by their absence. This absence has weakened their credibility and encouraging speculative attention.
The recent string of questionable tactical moves began last week when the Swiss National Bank was unable to prevent a breech of the euro/Swiss floor of 1.20. A modest change in tactics could …
What are They Thinking? What are They Thinking? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Pressures Ease After Alcoa

April 11, 2012
The global capital markets have stabilized following the release of the somewhat better than expected earnings report from Alcoa, which kicks off the US earnings season.  Although Asian shares were marked down, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index off about 0.7%, the European markets are recovering, with financial sector leading the way (at pixel tim…
Pressures Ease After Alcoa Pressures Ease After Alcoa Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Four Trade Ideas

April 10, 2012
Short Euro: Since late Jan, the record net short euro futures position was scaled back and as of last Tuesday was at its lowest level in about 20 weeks. This was partly a function of shorts being pared and partly longs being established. As a proxy for trend followers and momentum players, we suspect that market segment is now better balanced to a…
Four Trade Ideas Four Trade Ideas Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Testing the SNB's Resolve and Notable Reserve Developments

April 09, 2012
In the holiday thin markets, the Swiss National Banks' resolve to defend the cap in the franc has been challenged. At the end of last week and again today, it appears the CHF1.20 level has been breached. The SNB is believed to have intervened to defend the cap that announced early last September.
The combination of thin markets, increasing te…
Testing the SNB's Resolve and Notable Reserve Developments Testing the SNB's Resolve and Notable Reserve Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Position Adjustments in Week Thru April 3

April 07, 2012
The week covered by the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed only minor position adjustments were made by the non-commercial or speculative community through April 3.  Given the dramatic subsequent price action, the report may not be particularly revealing.  However, the positioning does suggest that many speculators were leaning the w…
Position Adjustments in Week Thru April 3 Position Adjustments in Week Thru April 3 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar and Yen Advance; SNB Challenged

April 05, 2012
The US dollar and yen are continuing the rally that began earlier this week.   The latest leg is more a function of poor developments in the euro zone rather than good news in the US.  The US will report weekly initial jobless claims which are sitting at the lowest levels since the recovery began, but it is the continued sell-off in euro zone bon…
Dollar and Yen Advance; SNB Challenged Dollar and Yen Advance; SNB Challenged Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Markets Take A Breath--Fragile Consolidation

March 07, 2012
Beginning a 10-day business trip to Asia.  Posts over this period may be sporadic.
The US dollar is slightly weaker today, but generally consolidating yesterday's large advance.  The tone is cautious and fragile with the Greek PSI conclusion looming. Although Greek banks and their pension funds, coupled with the most of the IIF's steering c…
Markets Take A Breath--Fragile Consolidation Markets Take A Breath--Fragile Consolidation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Euro Outlook, but Sell Swiss Francs CNBC: Euro Outlook, but Sell Swiss Francs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Six Observations about the FX Market

February 03, 2012
1. Of the three central banks that meet next week, Australia, UK and euro zone, the first two are expected to ease monetary policy (rate cut and new asset purchases respectively) but those two currencies have easily outperformed the euro over the past week, suggesting monetary policy expectations is not the only driver, or even a significant drive…
Six Observations about the FX Market Six Observations about the FX Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Swiss Miss: 2011 Trade Surplus Jumps, Market Careful of SNB

February 02, 2012
Switzerland reported a CHF2.07 bln trade surplus in December. Although this was somewhat less than expected, the trade surplus for the year was about CHF24 bln which is almost 20% larger than 2010. Of note, half the export growth appears to be accounted for by German demand. Also luxury watch exports to Asia were up strongly.
The strength of the f…
Swiss Miss: 2011 Trade Surplus Jumps, Market Careful of SNB Swiss Miss: 2011 Trade Surplus Jumps, Market Careful of SNB Reviewed by magonomics on February 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Surrenders Yesterday's Gains

February 01, 2012
Better than expected economic data from China and Europe is weighing on the dollar. The euro bounced smartly off the $1.3025 area seen in Asia. It appears to be stalling now near $1.3150 pending new incentives from the batch of US data (especially ADP and ISM). A modest new high on the day is possible, but yesterday's high near $1.3214 seems s…
Dollar Surrenders Yesterday's Gains Dollar Surrenders Yesterday's Gains Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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