Results for Swiss National Bank
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Swiss Reserves: Not what They Seem

June 07, 2016
News that Switzerland's reserves rose to a new record high of CHF602.1 bln in May from CHF587.9 bln in April spurred talk that the SNB has been intervening covertly.  One media account cited a trader calling the intervention as  "massive."
We are skeptical.  Given the massive holdings of foreign currencies, we suspect that the swing i…
Swiss Reserves: Not what They Seem Swiss Reserves: Not what They Seem Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 07, 2016 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Mixed to Start the Week

December 09, 2013
The diverging performance of the US dollar is evident today.  Its weakness is concentrated against the euro and sterling.  It is firm against the dollar bloc and yen.  It is mixed against the emerging market currencies. 

US Treasuries are steady after seemingly counter-intuitively firming a bit after the stronger than expected jobs data before the…
US Dollar Mixed to Start the Week US Dollar Mixed to Start the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Macro Myopia and a Preview of the Week's Highlights

December 08, 2013
The solid US jobs report that saw the world's largest economy add a little more than 200k net new jobs and the unemployment rate fall three tenths of a percent to 7.0%, even with the participation rate ticking up got some chins wagging about that the Federal Reserve tapering at its next FOMC meeting on December 17-18.
Even the usually astute F…
Macro Myopia and a Preview of the Week's Highlights Macro Myopia and a Preview of the Week's Highlights Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Marks Time Ahead of Employment Data

December 06, 2013
The US dollar is trading broadly sideways ahead of the November employment report.  Although many observers seem to disagree, we think the bar to Fed tapering later this month is high and the one month's jobs report, almost regardless of how strong, is insufficient.  
It is not just the growth side of the equation, as the October core PCE defla…
Dollar Marks Time Ahead of Employment Data Dollar Marks Time Ahead of Employment Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 06, 2013 Rating: 5
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Macro Considerations

December 01, 2013
The macro picture remains largely unchanged. Janet Yellen is expected to lead the Federal Reserve into a new phase by beginning to taper its long-term asset purchases early next year. The ECB is expect to move in the other direction, leaning against the tightening of financial conditions and the disinflationary forces.  Although deflation appears …
Macro Considerations Macro Considerations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 01, 2013 Rating: 5
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Conflicting Impulses Make for Treacherous Waters

October 25, 2013
The recognition that the Federal Reserve is most unlikely to taper this year succeeded US self-defeating fiscal exercise.  However, as the week winds down, it is the monetary policy of China and the Europe that is commanding more attention.  
The excess liquidity in the euro area has fallen below the 200 bln euro level that is perceived to consis…
Conflicting Impulses Make for Treacherous Waters Conflicting Impulses Make for Treacherous Waters Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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SNB, Nokia and the end of Deflation

September 03, 2013
Switzerland reported earlier today that Q2 GDP expanded by 0.5%, which was sufficient to lift the year-over-year rate to 2.5% from 1.2% in Q1. This is the strongest year-over-year pace since Q1 2011.
The market had expected a 0.3% increase on the quarter. However, what appears to have captured the market's attention today is the Swiss Nationa…
SNB, Nokia and the end of Deflation SNB, Nokia and the end of Deflation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Fundamentals Needed to Clarify Charts Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Fundamentals Needed to Clarify Charts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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Talk Drives Unwinding of FX Positions

January 16, 2013
After relatively large moves in the foreign exchange market since nearly the start of the year, participants were particularly vulnerable to commentary that encouraged a reversal of trend.  Japan's Amari got the ball rolling, suggesting that the yen's decline has been sufficient and that excessive strength had been corrected.  This encoura…
Talk Drives Unwinding of FX Positions Talk Drives Unwinding of FX Positions Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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Nine Observations on Q3 Currency Reserve Data

January 03, 2013
The IMF reported Q3 currency composition of foreign exchange reserves at the start of the week when many were on holiday.   We offer the following observations.

1.  As a whole, central banks drew down reserves during the financial crisis and have been rebuilding them.  Total fx reserves stood at $10.78 trillion at the end of Q3 2012.  This compar…
Nine Observations on Q3 Currency Reserve Data Nine Observations on Q3 Currency Reserve Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Foreign Exchange Frustrates

December 13, 2012
The US dollar saw its post-FOMC losses extended only against the euro as the perhaps the passable success of the Greek bond buy-back and bank supervision deal lent support to the single currency.  
Yet, even it succumbed to selling pressure in the European morning and returned to pre-FOMC levels near $1.3040.  Against most of the other majors, th…
Foreign Exchange Frustrates Foreign Exchange Frustrates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Stirred but not Shaken

December 08, 2012
We have been tracking the deterioration of the US dollar's technical tone over the past three weeks.  That ended abruptly.  Weak euro area data, a more dovish than expected ECB, and heightened political uncertainty in Italy, saw the euro reverse lower after briefly moving above an eighteen month-old downtrend.
The UK also cut its growth outloo…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Stirred but not Shaken Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Stirred but not Shaken Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 08, 2012 Rating: 5
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Heavy US Dollar Tone Continues

December 04, 2012
The US dollar continues to trade heavily, with the euro and sterling edging to new multi-week highs and the yen consolidating its recent losses.  The main consideration appears to be the looming fiscal cliff, weaker data and the prospects for additional QE to be announced next week by the Federal Reserve.  
At the same time, tail risks emanating …
Heavy US Dollar Tone Continues Heavy US Dollar Tone Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Composition of SNB's Reserves

October 30, 2012
The Swiss National Bank will report the composition of its reserves as of the end of Q3 on Wednesday.  This Great Graphic comes from the SNBCHF blog, showing the composition of SNB currency reserves in Q1 and Q2.   The fact that the SNB ended Q2 with a greater proportion of euro reserves (60% vs 51%) than in Q1 indicated that it was not as aggres…
Great Graphic: Composition of SNB's Reserves Great Graphic: Composition of SNB's Reserves Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Switzerland: Recycling Distortions

September 25, 2012
We have argued that the recycling of private sector surplus from the northern countries in the euro area to the southern debtors is the key mechanism that has broken down and causing a disruption in the transmission of the ECB's monetary policy. The upward pressure on the Swiss franc emanates from the same source.
The private sector is not …
Switzerland: Recycling Distortions Switzerland: Recycling Distortions Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX Positioning and Outlook: No Sign a Turn is at Hand

September 08, 2012
Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions.  This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar.  China is providing new fiscal support.  The ECB announced its new Outright Market Transactions.  The disappointing US em…
FX Positioning and Outlook: No Sign a Turn is at Hand FX Positioning and Outlook: No Sign a Turn is at Hand Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 08, 2012 Rating: 5
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Six Observations as Week Winds Down

September 07, 2012
There are six observations on the G10 to share ahead of the weekend. 
First, the ECB's Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) scheme has continued to bolster perceptions that officials are moving to reduce tail risk.  Dragji's announcement did not differ much in substance from what was leaked the previous day.  As was the case prior to this w…
Six Observations as Week Winds Down Six Observations as Week Winds Down Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Outlook

August 18, 2012
The market is like expectant parents who don't know the gender of the fetus.    They know something big is around the corner, but they don't have enough information to make some important decisions.  They can contemplate the future, but they are not sure of any scenario.    
Perhaps former US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld was not always wron…
Currency Positioning and Outlook Currency Positioning and Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX: Hurry Up and Wait

July 31, 2012
The US dollar is mixed. Against the dollar-bloc, it is soft, but against the other major currencies, it is consolidating in narrow ranges near the middle of yesterday’s ranges. Of the capital markets, the foreign exchange market seems the more wary of being disappointed this week. Risk assets, like equities, commodities and peripheral European …
FX: Hurry Up and Wait FX: Hurry Up and Wait Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Quick Note on Price Action: Close is Important

June 18, 2012
The euro reached its highest level in four weeks in Asia today, but how it closes the North American session may be more important.  
At the start of June, the euro and Swiss franc posted key outside up days following the poor US employment data.  We recognized it as such here and our confidence grew as follow through action materialized. Our wee…
Quick Note on Price Action: Close is Important Quick Note on Price Action: Close is Important Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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