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Dollar Recovery Continues

November 01, 2011
News of Greece's political gambit, fallout from haircut that is not a default, and poor economic data have seen risk come off in a big way after last week's near euphoria. While the euro never recovered from the news of that Greece will call a referendum, news that China's official PMI fell to 50.4 in Oct from 51.2 in Sept, contradicti…
Dollar Recovery Continues Dollar Recovery Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2011 Rating: 5
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The Pain in Spain

September 23, 2011
Spain appears to have dropped off radar screens. In part, a disorderly outcome of the Greek crisis continues to be threatened. Italian bond yields and CDS prices have risen above Spain's. Yet, ironically, earlier this week, Spain's central bank warned that its banking problems are bound to get worse.
Spain's 5-year CDS is trading at ne…
The Pain in Spain The Pain in Spain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 23, 2011 Rating: 5
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Markets Trying to Stabilize

August 09, 2011
The capital markets are beginning to show their first signs of stabilizing after follow through selling of equities and major foreign currencies, save the safe haven yen and Swiss franc, materialized. The market remains nervous and the situation remains fragile.
European economic data was poor, but the European bourses are recovering from the stee…
Markets Trying to Stabilize Markets Trying to Stabilize Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2011 Rating: 5
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ECB's Pyrrhic Victory

August 08, 2011
The ECB has succeed in driving down Spanish and Italian yields sharply today. Italy's generic 2 and 10-year yields are off around 80 bp. Spanish yields have declined even more dramatically, with the 2-year off 110 bp and the 10 year yields off almost 90 bp.
These are greater declines than many would have expected. Some observers are trying to …
ECB's Pyrrhic Victory ECB's Pyrrhic Victory Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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US Economic Headwinds Restrain the Dollar

August 02, 2011
The US dollar advanced in Asia and Europe but news of the first outright drop in US consumption in 2 years has seen the greenback surrender much of its earlier gains.  
June personal consumption expenditures fell 0.2% in June.  The consensus had looked for a small increase. Consumer spending on durable goods, a good cyclical indicator, has been fal…
US Economic Headwinds Restrain the Dollar US Economic Headwinds Restrain the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Waiting for Godot

July 07, 2011
The US dollar is holding on to yesterday's gains as the market awaits the key events of the week:  the ECB meeting and press conference and the US jobs data--for which the imprecise ADP data will serve as the proxy today ahead of tomorrow's national report. 
While yesterday's free-fall in peripheral European bonds has moderated today, …
Waiting for Godot Waiting for Godot Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Containment Failure

July 06, 2011
There is only one story today in the capital markets.  As European officials continue to debate private sector participation in Greece's second package, Moody's seemingly caught the market off-guard by slashing Portugal's rating 4-notches late yesterday--keeping it on negative watch and warning it may need a second aid package as well.…
Containment Failure Containment Failure Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Chops Higher

June 08, 2011
The US dollar is mostly firmer, though the yen is a notable exception, amid position squaring.  Global equities are lower on growth concerns and the failure of the US markets yesterday, which extended the losing streak in S&P 500 to the fifth consecutive session.   Growth concerns also seem to be weighing on commodity prices and emerging marke…
Dollar Chops Higher Dollar Chops Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Consolidates Losses

June 06, 2011
The US dollar briefly extended its pre-weekend decline, but has settled into a consolildative tone.  Additional modest dollar gains may be seen in North America, but selling into bounces is likely to dominate as a full blown crisis in Europe is avoided for the time being and this allows near-term focus to shift back to weakness of the US economy a…
Dollar Consolidates Losses Dollar Consolidates Losses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Mixed, Underlying Themes Reemerge

May 17, 2011
The US dollar is broadly mixed, losing ground against the euro, sterling and dollar bloc, but gaining against the the Swiss franc and even more so against the Japanese yen.  Commodity prices are firmer.  Equities were lower in Asia and began lower in Europe before recovering.  
The dollar reached its best level against the yen since April 27.  The …
Dollar Mixed, Underlying Themes Reemerge Dollar Mixed, Underlying Themes Reemerge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 17, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Mixed on Monday

May 16, 2011
The dollar is mostly firmer, but without much momentum as the market awaits fruther developments. 
The euro recovered from the dip below $1.4050, but ran out of steam near $1.4150, which was previously support.    The European finance ministers meeting begins shortly, and approval of Portugal's package may be the only concrete action that emer…
Dollar Mixed on Monday Dollar Mixed on Monday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Big Picture Thinking: The Euro, Greece, Europe, ECB

May 14, 2011
There have been a number of developments in Europe over the past several days and the euro has broken down. Its nine cent decline in nine days demands attention. The 5 and 20 day moving average have generated bearish technical signals, led by sterling, followed by the euro, and confirmed by the Swiss franc. Other bearish technical developments hav…
Big Picture Thinking: The Euro, Greece, Europe, ECB Big Picture Thinking:  The Euro, Greece, Europe, ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2011 Rating: 5
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Market Lacks Conviction

May 10, 2011
The US dollar is mostly firmer today, but the market lacks near-term conviction.   After last Friday's unscheduled mini-EU summit, it seemed like key officials recognized that something more needs to be done for and with Greece, shy of asking it to leave the monetary union and shy of a default, but today it is far less clear that the political…
Market Lacks Conviction Market Lacks Conviction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 10, 2011 Rating: 5
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Two Governments Could Fall, but Euro Resilience Continues

March 23, 2011
The US dollar is mostly lower.  The exception is sterling which was yesterday's outperformer.  Minutes from BOE meeting contained no surprises, but the market awaits the budget.  
Even though European bourses are higher, anxiety levels are running high--not just because of Libya, but also Yemen, Syria, Gaza strip, among the MENA, but also as I…
Two Governments Could Fall, but Euro Resilience Continues Two Governments Could Fall, but Euro Resilience Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 23, 2011 Rating: 5
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Parry and Feint: Outlines of Europe's Next Chapter

March 14, 2011
European officials have reached an agreement in principle that falls well shy of the “comprehensive plan” officials had promised and is unlikely to provide investors with a sense of closure to the debt crisis that began in late 2009. Yet progress was sufficient that the debt crisis is unlikely to override the divergence of US and European interest…
Parry and Feint: Outlines of Europe's Next Chapter Parry and Feint:  Outlines of Europe's Next Chapter Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 14, 2011 Rating: 5
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When Will Portugal Ask for Assistance

March 07, 2011
Portugal will be selling 750 mln to 1 bln euro of 2 1/2 year bonds on Wednesday. It will be the first bond offering since the syndicated offering in mid-Feb. It has been trying to buy back bonds that expire this year, but these have generally seen lukewarm interest. Portugal is trying to raise funds not only to cover this year's deficit, but i…
When Will Portugal Ask for Assistance When Will Portugal Ask for Assistance Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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FX Forces: Rate Expectations and Petrodollar Recycling

March 02, 2011
There are two main drivers of the US dollar presently: divergent interest rate expectations and the recycling of petrodollars. Developments over the past 24 hours reinforce those drivers. The higher euro zone manufacturing PMI readings yesterday have been followed by news of a larger than expected jump in Jan producer prices. The 1.5% m/m increase…
FX Forces: Rate Expectations and Petrodollar Recycling FX Forces:  Rate Expectations and Petrodollar Recycling Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Sterling Downside Risks Second Half of the Week

February 07, 2011
The British pound remains among the better performing currencies in the wake of the dollar's recovery that began in the second half of last week. Underpinning it are ideas that the BOE may very well be the first of the major central banks to hike rates. In fact, various market based measures suggest the risk is about 1 in 5 that a hike takes p…
Sterling Downside Risks Second Half of the Week Sterling Downside Risks Second Half of the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firm

February 07, 2011
Talk of continued official demand for euros out of Asia appears to be being absorbed by the market that seems keen to pare back positions. Support has been seen in the $1.3540 area and a break would initially target $1.3480 and then later $1.3350. Sterling is lower for the third consecutive session, but is holding up a bit better. The market recog…
Dollar Firm Dollar Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Europe: Lacking Proper Diagnosis, Cure Remains Elusive

January 09, 2011
Europe’s debt crisis remains among the most important factors in the global capital markets. By some market-based measures, like interest rate spreads and credit default swap prices, the crisis is more acute now than it was before an assistance package was belatedly cobbled together for Greece and the establishment of the temporary European Financ…
Europe: Lacking Proper Diagnosis, Cure Remains Elusive Europe:  Lacking Proper Diagnosis, Cure Remains Elusive Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 09, 2011 Rating: 5
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