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Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead

January 06, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

China data deluge starts this week.  December trade data could come out anytime this week, with exports expected to rise 5.3% y/y and imports to rise 5.0% y/y.  CPI could also be released this week, with consensus at 2.7% y/y vs. 3.0% in November.  Money and credit growth could also be reported, …
Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

December 09, 2013
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM currencies are coming off a strong week, but the rally appears to be running out of steam as some are already giving back some of their recent gains. MXN has gained nearly 3% vs. USD over the past week, followed closely by INR (up 2%) and RUB (up 1.5%). Notable underperformers are IDR (down nearly 2% vs. USD)…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets:  Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Changes in South African Inequality During Mandela's Life

December 08, 2013
This Great Graphic shows how the average income and population by racial group changed during the life of Nelson Mandela.  It comes from The Economist.
It illustrates a sad fact.  Income disparity in South Africa is larger now than under Apartheid.  
There have been joint and distributional gains since the end of Apartheid.  The distributional gai…
Great Graphic: Changes in South African Inequality During Mandela's Life Great Graphic:  Changes in South African Inequality During Mandela's Life Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

December 02, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 

EM currencies are coming off a bad week. BRL, IDR, and CLP have all lost 2% or more against USD over the past week. Other notable underperformers are ZAR, TRY, and MXN, all down 1.0-1.5% against USD. Asia continues to outperform, with PHP, KRW, and MYR up about 0.5% against USD over the past week…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets:  Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 02, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

November 25, 2013
 (from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) EM currencies are coming off of a soft week, and are starting off this week on a softer note as well. The best performers are IDR (+1% vs. USD over the past week), TRY (+1%), and ZAR (+1%). The worst were RUB (-1.4% vs. USD), BRL (-1.25%), THB (-1.2%), and MYR (-1%). EM equities were mostly weak…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets:  Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead

November 18, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 

Emerging market currencies are coming off of a strong week, and are starting off this week on a firmer note as well. The best performers over the past week are MXN (+2.5% vs. USD), BRL (+2.5%), ZAR (+2.5%), and PLN (+1% vs. EUR). The laggards were IDR (-0.6% vs. USD), ARS (-0.5%), PHP, and CNY (bo…
Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview:  The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 18, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

October 21, 2013
(from my colleagues, Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Today, Brazil will hold an auction for the Libra oil field, which is a test of the new model for oil exploration. The results should be announced at 2pm, Brasilia time. Not surprisingly, the new system is being highly criticized. Most major oil companies (BP, Exxon, Chevron) decided not to partici…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: Monetary Policy and Data

September 16, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Turkey central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady. With the lira stabilizing, the central bank has loosened up liquidity conditions by lowering the average cost of funds for banks close to 6.0% after a brief spike above 7.0% in August. 
That loosening should continue, and so the…
Emerging Market Preview: Monetary Policy and Data Emerging Market Preview:  Monetary Policy and Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets Preview of Key Data and Policy Meetings

September 09, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
China data dump continues on Tuesday as it reports August IP and retail sales. On Monday, China reported August CPI, which came in as expected at 2.6% y/y. Over the next week, China will report new yuan loans and aggregate financing, with whisper numbers suggesting an upside surprise could be in t…
Emerging Markets Preview of Key Data and Policy Meetings Emerging Markets Preview of Key Data and Policy Meetings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Policy and Data Weekly Preview

August 26, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

Israel central bank meets Monday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.25%. Acting Governor Flug continues to chair the meetings as the search for a successor to Fischer continues. There are reportedly three candidates that have met with the vetting committee. ILS has gotten caught up in the E…
Emerging Markets: Policy and Data Weekly Preview Emerging Markets:  Policy and Data Weekly Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: Central Banks and Key Data

August 19, 2013
(from my colleague, Ilan Solot)
Central Bank of Turkey meets Tuesday and is expected to keep policy rates steady, though given the pressure in EM currencies, we assume an off chance of a surprise rate increase. With the lira having stabilized for most of August, we do not see any need to tighten again yet. Average cost of funding remains near 6.5…
Emerging Market Preview: Central Banks and Key Data Emerging Market Preview:  Central Banks and Key Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 19, 2013 Rating: 5
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

July 22, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

The most contentious event this week will be the Turkish central bank meeting - observers still differ on the magnitude of the increase in the overnight lending rate. Hungary should cut rates by 25 bp, while the Philippines and Colombian central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged. On the dat…
EM Preview for the Week Ahead EM Preview for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 22, 2013 Rating: 5
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Four Emerging Market Highlights this Week

July 15, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Poland reported  June CPI on Monday and was well below expectations  It was flat while the consensus on the month and a mild 0.2% year-over-year, down from 0.,5% ini May.  Some at central bank are hinting that the easing cycle is over now, but with disinflation moving closer to deflation, we think …
Four Emerging Market Highlights this Week Four Emerging Market Highlights this Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 15, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Highlights for the Week Ahead

June 17, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Emerging market currencies will remain under pressure this week. We continue to think that countries with poor fundamentals and high financing needs (twin deficits) will fare poorly as fears of scarcer global capital build ahead of the FOMC meeting this week.
Central bank of Turkey meet…
Emerging Market Highlights for the Week Ahead Emerging Market Highlights for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 17, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: Headwinds Generate Policy Response (but not in Brazil) Emerging Market Preview:  Headwinds Generate Policy Response (but not in Brazil) Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

May 23, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

This is what has changed in the EM space in, our view. 1) In Brazil, government finances are back in focus and sparking calls for faster hikes 2) The Philippines government takes action on FX, more is coming 3) FX measures are also coming in Thailand 4) PBOC resumes CNY appreciation 5) Social-politi…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets:  What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Highlights for the Week Ahead

May 20, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
In the EM space, disinflation and slow growth remain major themes for most of the countries. Certainly, weaker Chinese readings have gotten the headlines but the malaise is spreading well beyond Asia. 
Today, it was Chile that reported Q1 GDP growth at a much weaker than expected at 4.1% y/y, down …
Emerging Market Highlights for the Week Ahead Emerging Market Highlights for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Japanese Uridashi Issuance

April 23, 2013
(This Great Graphic and the following analysis is provided by my colleague, Dr. Win Thin.  He focuses on Uridashi bond issuance in Japan, which are bonds sold directly to households. The data comes from Bloomberg and the Japan's Ministry of Finance.)

With all the talk about Japanese money going into EM, we thought it would be interesting to lo…
Great Graphic: Japanese Uridashi Issuance Great Graphic:  Japanese Uridashi Issuance Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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This Week's Emerging Markets Highlights

April 15, 2013
 (from my  colleague, Dr. Win Thin)

Given that the weak China Q1 GDP report has led to renewed concerns about growth there, the HSBC flash PMI reading that comes out this Saturday has taken on greater importance. HSBC measure rose to 51.6 in March from 50.4 in February, but the official PMI rose to only 50.9 from 50.1 in February. This will be t…
This Week's Emerging Markets Highlights This Week's Emerging Markets Highlights Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 15, 2013 Rating: 5
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Stagflation-Lite in Some Emerging Markets

April 03, 2013
Here is an update on several emerging markets by my colleague Ilan Solot.  

Many of the major emerging market countries seem to be moving deeper into a sort of stagflation-light situation, with inflation sticky at high levels but with growth decelerating or stagnant. In this report, we look at some of the differences and similarities in policy re…
Stagflation-Lite in Some Emerging Markets Stagflation-Lite in Some Emerging Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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