Results for Solot
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Emeriging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

January 13, 2014
(from my colleagues, Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

Despite the growing tensions in Thailand and the risk of military involvement, equity indices stared off the week higher and THB stable. There is some optimism that a possible delay to the February 2 vote could open up space for some sort of compromise. This will be the key factor to watch this week…
Emeriging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emeriging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 13, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

January 09, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) China IPO has resumed in earnest 2) The Korean government may step in to help exporters 3) Brazilian domestic auto sales declined for the first time in 10 years while Mexico’s auto industry booms 4) Hungary central bank minutes suggest rate cuts to continue this year, but at a slower pace Ove…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 09, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead

January 06, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

China data deluge starts this week.  December trade data could come out anytime this week, with exports expected to rise 5.3% y/y and imports to rise 5.0% y/y.  CPI could also be released this week, with consensus at 2.7% y/y vs. 3.0% in November.  Money and credit growth could also be reported, …
Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emergng Markets: What has Changed

December 05, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1) The PRD (left-leaning opposition party) has left the Pacto Por Mexico
2) Tensions in Ukraine continue to rise
3) In Brazil, there was bad news on growth, but less bad news on the fiscal front
4) Fitch moved the outlook on its A rating for Israel from stable to positive
Over the last week, China (+…
Emergng Markets: What has Changed Emergng Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 05, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

December 02, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 

EM currencies are coming off a bad week. BRL, IDR, and CLP have all lost 2% or more against USD over the past week. Other notable underperformers are ZAR, TRY, and MXN, all down 1.0-1.5% against USD. Asia continues to outperform, with PHP, KRW, and MYR up about 0.5% against USD over the past week…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 02, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

November 29, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr.Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1) The Czech central bank (CNB) gave us some details about its intervention program 2) Tensions are escalating again with China’s new East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) initiative 3) Protests in Thailand are escalating 4) Brazil risks are tilting back towards the negative side …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

November 25, 2013
 (from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) EM currencies are coming off of a soft week, and are starting off this week on a softer note as well. The best performers are IDR (+1% vs. USD over the past week), TRY (+1%), and ZAR (+1%). The worst were RUB (-1.4% vs. USD), BRL (-1.25%), THB (-1.2%), and MYR (-1%). EM equities were mostly weak…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead

November 18, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 

Emerging market currencies are coming off of a strong week, and are starting off this week on a firmer note as well. The best performers over the past week are MXN (+2.5% vs. USD), BRL (+2.5%), ZAR (+2.5%), and PLN (+1% vs. EUR). The laggards were IDR (-0.6% vs. USD), ARS (-0.5%), PHP, and CNY (bo…
Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 18, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

November 14, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1) The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly hiked rates 25 bp to 7.50%
2) India reported higher than expected October CPI and WPI, and should tip the RBI into hiking again next month 
3) Hungary reported much lower than expected October CPI and we now expect the central bank to cut the policy rate b…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 14, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets Preview: Week Ahead

November 11, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
EM currencies are coming out of a rough week, and are starting off this week on a softer note as well. The worst performers over the past week are CZK (-4% vs. EUR), BRL (-3% vs. USD), INR (-2.5%), ZAR (-2.25%), and IDR (-2%). Not surprisingly, CNY (+0.1% vs. USD), TWD (-0.4%), and SGD (-0.5%) hav…
Emerging Markets Preview: Week Ahead Emerging Markets Preview: Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 11, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Where Do We Stand ?

November 06, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
EM currencies have traded in several distinct phases this year. After a strong start to the year, the EM rally was derailed by Bernanke’s tapering speech on May 22. EM currencies sold off for much of the summer, with most bottoming in late August or early September as weaker US data lowered the per…
Emerging Markets: Where Do We Stand ? Emerging Markets: Where Do We Stand ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview

November 04, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Mexico reports October consumer confidence later today and is expected at 92.8 vs. 94.1 in September. Retail sales have been very weak recently as confidence weakens. Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday, while October CPI will be reported on Thursday and expected t…
Emerging Market Preview Emerging Market Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 04, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 17, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) The US government shutdown and its impact on the economy and economic releases have pushed out Fed tapering expectations into 2014
2) There are growing signs that Korean officials may start to step up resistance against further won gains
3) The Brazilian swaps intervention program is turning into…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Weekly Preview

October 14, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 

Bank of Thailand meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 2.5%. However, disinflation continues and should set the table for an eventual cut by the BOT. Core CPI rose only 0.6% y/y in September, right at the bottom of the 0.5-3.0% target range. Meanwhile, IP, consumption, investmen…
Emerging Markets: Weekly Preview Emerging Markets: Weekly Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 10, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 

(1) The lack of change in the statement by the Brazilian central bank suggests that another 50 bp is now more likely.
(2) The Central Bank of Russia has introduced some more flexibility into its managed ruble float.
(3) The Reserve Bank of India cut its marginal lending rate by 50 bp to 9.00%
(4…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 10, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

October 03, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Brazilian central bank sounds more hawkish; Moody’s sounds more bearish
 Bank of Israel will increase its dollar purchases to $3.5 bln in 2014
The Colombian central bank reduced its dollar purchase program
Price action this week: Brazil (-2%), Chile (-2%), and Singapore (-1.5%) have underperformed …
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead

September 30, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

Brazil's government will report August budget data Monday, with the primary surplus expected at BRL1.6 bln vs. BRL2.3 bln in July. We think that if negative fiscal trends continue, Brazil runs the risk of a downgrade. S&P moved the outlook on its BBB rating from stable to negative back in J…
Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 30, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 26, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) Brazil's central bank is not tapering its FX intervention plan

2) The Philippine central bank outlined the tools it will use to counter Fed tapering

3) The RBI is taking further steps to improve the liquidity situation and help stabilized capital markets

4) There were some…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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