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Setback for the Greenback

October 10, 2019
Overview: Conflicting headlines about US-China trade whipsawed the markets in Asia, but when things settled down, perhaps, like the partial deal that has been hinted, net-net little has changed. Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei, China's indices, and HK gaining, while most of the others slipped lower. The 0.9% gain in the S&P 500 …
Setback for the Greenback Setback for the Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 10, 2019 Rating: 5
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Choppy FX Conditions in the Fog of War

February 13, 2013
The price action in the foreign exchange market is choppy  as short-term participants seem nervous after being whipsawed yesterday.  Sterling fell nearly a cent to new multi-month lows following the BOE's inflation report that confirmed official expectations that price pressures will remain above target and King welcomed the recent depreciati…
Choppy FX Conditions in the Fog of War Choppy FX Conditions in the Fog of War Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 13, 2013 Rating: 5
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Nordic Update

October 09, 2012
Sweden reports August industrial production figures on Wednesday, followed by the Sept inflation on Thursday. The data should encourage the view that the Riksbank can cut rates against later this month when it meets (Oct 25), even though it had cut rates last month as well.
There need not be a downside surprise in either output or inflation to st…
Nordic Update Nordic Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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RBA Delivers, Is the Riksbank Next?

October 02, 2012
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25 bp rate cut earlier today. While the ECB, BOE and BOJ meet later this week, expectations are low for additional action. Sweden's Riksbank meets on October 25 and could be the next central bank to cut rates.
The Riksbank cut the repo rate 25 bp in early September to 1.25%. Recent data has been ex…
RBA Delivers, Is the Riksbank Next? RBA Delivers, Is the Riksbank Next? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Will Draghi Deliver or More about Modalities ?

September 06, 2012
What promises to be an eventful period, and one in which the implied volatility, either in VIX or currencies seem low, has already had a couple of surprises.  The session began with soft Australian employment numbers.  Rather than grow 5k jobs, it lost 8.8k.  These were concentrated in part-time jobs, but the full-time positions gained only 600 a…
Will Draghi Deliver or More about Modalities ? Will Draghi Deliver or More about Modalities ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX: Little Movement, Much to Digest

June 14, 2012
The US dollar continues to sport a soft profile as market position adjustments ahead of the Greek election continues to dominate.  As anticipated, the market has mostly looked beyond Moody's three step downgrade of Spain's creditworthiness to Baa3.  Spanish 10-year yields pushed through 7% briefly, but rumors that ECB officials may have &…
FX: Little Movement, Much to Digest FX: Little Movement, Much to Digest Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Late Dollar Longs Vulnerable

May 17, 2012
Perhaps it is the California air, where I am on a business trip, but it seems that the euro bears have run their course for the time being and a corrective phase may be unfolding.   The late buyers of dollars against most of the major and emerging market currencies look vulnerable.
Just like I brought to your attention the importance of the gaps…
Late Dollar Longs Vulnerable Late Dollar Longs Vulnerable Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Ends Week Like It Began

February 24, 2012
The week is winding down.  The two main features of the week's activity and today's are euro strength and yen weakness.  
The euro has moved to new highs for the year and has pulled the Swiss franc along for the ride.  There has been some talk that the Swiss National Bank has quietly intervened today, but confirmation is lacking.  The euro&…
Dollar Ends Week Like It Began Dollar Ends Week Like It Began Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Weakens, but Doesn't Break

February 23, 2012
The US dollar is sporting a soft profile, with the euro making marginal news high for the year. The single currency's push higher met offers just shy of $1.3350 level, which is thought to hold a large option barrier. Above there, offers are seen near $1.3375 and then $1.3435.
The main catalyst appears to have been better than expected economic …
Dollar Weakens, but Doesn't Break Dollar Weakens, but Doesn't Break Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Surrenders Yesterday's Gains

February 01, 2012
Better than expected economic data from China and Europe is weighing on the dollar. The euro bounced smartly off the $1.3025 area seen in Asia. It appears to be stalling now near $1.3150 pending new incentives from the batch of US data (especially ADP and ISM). A modest new high on the day is possible, but yesterday's high near $1.3214 seems s…
Dollar Surrenders Yesterday's Gains Dollar Surrenders Yesterday's Gains Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX

January 22, 2012
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don't (non-commercials). Commercial positions are thought to be banks or businesses hedging. Non-commercials accounts are understood as a proxy for speculators.
Market participants tend to foc…
Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations

January 20, 2012
I have written recently of the euro's correlation with the S&P 500.  I concluded that although the correlation has weakened, it remains elevated.  We vigilantly monitor that relationship because it seems that it is representative of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that still is so influential for both short-term traders and longer term investo…
Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Norway Surprises and Ongoing Funding Woes

December 14, 2011
Norges Bank cut its official deposit rate by 50 bp to 1.75%. Most were looking for a 25 bp move, but some local banks had been warning of a 50 bp. The central bank was clearly concerned about the knock-on effects from the euro zone, but also noted that market funding for Norwegian banks was less accessible.
The dollar funding pressure continues to…
Norway Surprises and Ongoing Funding Woes Norway Surprises and Ongoing Funding Woes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 14, 2011 Rating: 5
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Fed Twists, Markets Shout and Some Thoughts on Currency Levels

September 22, 2011
The Federal Reserve announced Operation Twist and rather than increase investors appetite for riskier assets, the market has sought the security of the US dollar and to a lesser extent the Japanese yen. Equities have dropped dramatically, but the impact of the Fed's plans is clear as the US Treasury curve continues to flatten with the long end…
Fed Twists, Markets Shout and Some Thoughts on Currency Levels Fed Twists, Markets Shout and Some Thoughts on Currency Levels Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 22, 2011 Rating: 5
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Update: Correlations between Selective Currencies and S&P 500

June 28, 2011
(This is an update from this post.) As the Q2 winds down, it may be useful to review the recent correlations between some of the major currencies and the US S&P 500. The correlation calculations are conducted on the basis of percentage change of the currency and the S&P 500. What follows are the highlights.
Update: Correlations between Selective Currencies and S&P 500 Update: Correlations between Selective Currencies and S&P 500 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2011 Rating: 5
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Europe's Political Climate Impacts the Debt Crisis Response

May 17, 2011
The policy response to the European debt crisis is critical and that response is function of European politics. There have been a number of developments in European politics that investors should be aware of.
Germany: The crisis has revealed the Germany's economic and financial power, but the elite and people seem divided about projecting comm…
Europe's Political Climate Impacts the Debt Crisis Response Europe's Political Climate Impacts the Debt Crisis Response Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 17, 2011 Rating: 5
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Policy Divergence Theme Driven Home

March 01, 2011
The combination of the strength of the European data and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's semiannual testimony before the Senate, which is unlikely to signal an early end to QEII, is reinforcing ideas that Europe is likely to raise rates before the US. This continues to weigh on the dollar. Talk of recycling of petrodollars as oil producers…
Policy Divergence Theme Driven Home Policy Divergence Theme Driven Home Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 01, 2011 Rating: 5
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Sterling Warning, ECB M3 and Swiss Resilience

February 25, 2011
One noteworthy take away from this week's price action is the under-performance of sterling. It's 1% loss against the dollar makes it one of the weakest currencies, second only to the New Zealand dollar, which was undermined by a swing in rate expectations following the devastating earthquake.
Sterling continues its under-performance today…
Sterling Warning, ECB M3 and Swiss Resilience Sterling Warning, ECB M3 and Swiss Resilience Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 25, 2011 Rating: 5
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In A Disappointing Europe, Sweden Stands Out

November 29, 2010
Europe is engulfed in a financial crisis that is also becoming a political crisis. Sweden stands out as an exception and we affirm our expectation of the krona's out performance in period ahead.
Sweden's economy contracted 5.3% last year but has rebounded smartly this year. Q3 GDP was reportedly earlier today and at 2.1% quarter-over-quart…
In A Disappointing Europe, Sweden Stands Out In A Disappointing Europe, Sweden Stands Out Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2010 Rating: 5
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The More Considered Take

October 01, 2010
The US’s dollar’s slide that began in earnest in early September is set to continue. The prospects of QEII are deeply engrained. Some observers are emphasizing the sell-off in US Treasuries after the stronger Chicago PMI, but it seems the recovery was just as impressive. There seem to be two elements capture the forces at work.
First, the euro con…
The More Considered Take The More Considered Take Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 01, 2010 Rating: 5
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