Results for Reserves
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What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF

April 13, 2020
The spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF will be held virtually this week amid a profound economic crisis spurred by a novel coronavirus.  Unlike previous such viruses, this went global in such a destructive way that many countries have responded the same way.  Encouraging social distancing, closing non-essential businesses, and enforcing loc…
What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2020 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Weaponization of the Dollar and the Search for an Alternative

December 17, 2019
I talked to Rick Santelli on CNBC earlier today about the dollar.  A link to the video clip can be found here.  Our brief discussion had two components.  In the first, talked about the seemingly never-ending quest for an alternative to the dollar.  I have argued that the biggest threat to the greenback's role in economics and finance does not …
Cool Video: Weaponization of the Dollar and the Search for an Alternative Cool Video:  Weaponization of the Dollar and the Search for an Alternative Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 17, 2019 Rating: 5
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A Word on Q3 COFER--It Might not be What You Think

December 31, 2018
The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag.  The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released.  It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that t…
A Word on Q3 COFER--It Might not be What You Think A Word on Q3 COFER--It Might not be What You Think Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 31, 2018 Rating: 5
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The Dollar and Its Rivals

December 04, 2018
I was in graduate school, studying American foreign policy when I stumbled on Riccardo Parboni's "The Dollar and Its Rivals."  This thin volume showed how the foreign exchange market was the arena in which capitalist rivalries were expressed. More than any single book, it set me on a more than 30-year path.
The dramatic world of for…
The Dollar and Its Rivals The Dollar and Its Rivals Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 04, 2018 Rating: 5
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The Yuan's Reserve Status

January 16, 2018
There is nothing quite like a falling dollar to spur talk of the erosion of the greenback's reserve status.  There has been talk for several months that China is preparing in yuan-denominated oil contract (with an embedded gold option).  It has not been launched yet, but some observers see it as a blow to the dollar's role.  We are skeptica…
The Yuan's Reserve Status The Yuan's Reserve Status Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 16, 2018 Rating: 5
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USD Turns Bid: Euro and Sterling Share Dollar-Bloc and Yen's Pain

January 15, 2014
The US dollar is firmer across the board today as investors continue to regain confidence that the FOMC will proceed with its tapering efforts.  The impression is that the strength of the retail sales stripped of autos, building materials and gasoline showed a unexpected resilience of the US consumer that does not mesh with the weakness in employm…
USD Turns Bid: Euro and Sterling Share Dollar-Bloc and Yen's Pain USD Turns Bid:  Euro and Sterling Share Dollar-Bloc and Yen's Pain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 15, 2014 Rating: 5
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Paying the Piper: Cost of the US Government Closure

October 17, 2013
The sixteen day political exercise in Washington is over.  The costs are being tallied.  There are economic and political costs that are worth considering.  
S&P estimates that the government closure will shave 0.6% off Q4 GDP's annualized rate or about $24 bln.  A Reuters poll found a consensus of 0.3% drag.  The logic apparently is that …
Paying the Piper: Cost of the US Government Closure Paying the Piper:  Cost of the US Government Closure Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2013 Rating: 5
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Drivers in the Week Ahead

October 13, 2013
The continued partial shutdown of the US government and the risk of default remains the overriding consideration in the global capital markets. There appears to have been limited progress over the weekend.  
This could spark some disappointment and weigh on US dollar and equities on Monday.  Activity will be lighter than usual, as Japan, Hong Kong,…
Drivers in the Week Ahead Drivers in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 13, 2013 Rating: 5
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What Next for US Fiscal Policy: A Dispassionate Discussion

October 10, 2013
We detected a change Tuesday in the US fiscal stalemate.  We think that the movement toward a short-term solution, that buys time for additional negotiation, is continuing.  Despite the rhetoric, there appears to be more common ground than is widely appreciated. 
As the Republican Senator Lindsey Graham observed, the Republican Party tried taking o…
What Next for US Fiscal Policy: A Dispassionate Discussion What Next for US Fiscal Policy:  A Dispassionate Discussion Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 10, 2013 Rating: 5
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Indonesia: Falling behind the Curve

September 04, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

Bank Indonesia has fallen far behind the curve in its currency management tactics. After fairly steady intervention kept USD/IDR trading near the 10,000 area from May through early August, the authorities have been allowing the pair to move sharply higher since mid-August. 
We believe part of this…
Indonesia: Falling behind the Curve Indonesia:  Falling behind the Curve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2013 Rating: 5
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Excellent Timing for Brazil's Double Down

August 23, 2013
(from my colleague Ilan Solot)

Brazilian officials finally pulled a big rabbit out of their policy hat. The central bank committed to selling up to $500 mln in FX swaps daily and up to $1 bln on Fridays – amounting to around $60 bln. The program will last until the end of the year.

In short, the new measure gives markets a far greater degree of …
Excellent Timing for Brazil's Double Down Excellent Timing for Brazil's  Double Down Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Aussie Smack Down

May 16, 2013
The dramatic sell-off of the Australian dollar is the latest of a series of price developments that have surprised the market. The sell-off in JGBs, which appears to have stabilized, has seen 10-year yields in Japan nearly double, despite the BOJ's commitment to buy 70% of the new supply. The sharp decline in gold prices has taken place des…
Aussie Smack Down Aussie Smack Down Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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Latest Central Bank Reserve Data

April 01, 2013
At the end of last week, the IMF reported the latest reserve figures for Q4 2012. Overall currency reserves stood at $10.9 trillion at the end of last year, up $734.5 bln over the course of the year. Most central banks provide the currency allocation of their reserves. There are two notable exceptions: China, which regards the information as a…
Latest Central Bank Reserve Data Latest Central Bank Reserve Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2013 Rating: 5
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Still Raining in Japan

February 03, 2013
The Abe government is lucky.  The previous government wasted the little political capital it had on pushing through the controversial retail sales tax hike that won't be even implemented until 2014 at the earliest.  
The LDP ran its campaign as the some of the safe haven investor behavior was unwound.  At the same time, the weakness in the eu…
Still Raining in Japan Still Raining in Japan Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Sweden's Riksbank To Bolster Reserves

December 12, 2012
The accumulation of reserves is primarily limited to developing countries.  There are two notable exceptions among the high income countries. Japan, which is traditionally willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb the yen's strength.  The last intervention took place in Oct-Nov 2011, when the BOJ bought over $100 bln.  
The …
Sweden's Riksbank To Bolster Reserves Sweden's Riksbank  To Bolster Reserves Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Misunderstanding IMF COFER Adjustments

November 20, 2012
There is a buzz from the sidelines of the foreign exchange market that the IMF is considering classifying the Australian and Canadian dollars as reserve currencies. This is a misleading way to characterize what is happening.
It is already well documented that a number of central banks, including German, Swiss, and Russian central banks have added…
Misunderstanding IMF COFER Adjustments Misunderstanding IMF COFER Adjustments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Three Key Developments

October 31, 2012
The US dollar is generally offered today.  There does not seem to be a major catalyst.  Rather technical factors, and in particular, the euro's inability to fall through the $1.2880 area despite repeated tests appears to have encouraged the move to the upside, as the path of least resistance.

Month-end flows are difficult to anticipate but m…
Three Key Developments Three Key Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Australia: Manipulating by not Intervening?

October 26, 2012
The Wall Street Journal brings to our attention the fact that the reserves at the Reserve Bank of Australia have risen sharply over the past two months.   Its reserves have risen by A$863 mln over the past two months after rising by about A$147 mln in all of Q2.

Typically when reserves increase, it is due to action by the central bank. However, as …
Australia: Manipulating by not Intervening? Australia:  Manipulating by not Intervening? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: China Exports and New Loans

October 14, 2012
China reported its September trade figures. Exports showed a larger than expected increase. The 9.9% increase was nearly twice the Bloomberg consensus and well above August's 2.7% pace.  
Imports rose 2.4%, after falling for the previous three months.  Of particular interest, copper imports were at their highest level in four months and iron …
Great Graphic: China Exports and New Loans Great Graphic:  China Exports and New Loans Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX: Hurry Up and Wait

July 31, 2012
The US dollar is mixed. Against the dollar-bloc, it is soft, but against the other major currencies, it is consolidating in narrow ranges near the middle of yesterday’s ranges. Of the capital markets, the foreign exchange market seems the more wary of being disappointed this week. Risk assets, like equities, commodities and peripheral European …
FX: Hurry Up and Wait FX:  Hurry Up and Wait Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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