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November Monthly

November 01, 2020
Several issues that have cast a pall over the business and investment climate are likely to be lifted shortly.  Many still fear that the results of the US election will not be known for an extended period of time, but we note that a metric of fear, the difference between November and December VIX (S&P volatility) futures was at a six-month low…
November Monthly November Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2020 Rating: 5
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March Monthly

March 01, 2020
The new coronavirus that originated in China, apparently first detected in December, emerged on the world's stage in January and continues to dominate the investment climate. There are two critical questions for investors and businesses whose answers will likely be clearer in the first part of March.  First, will Covid-19 be contained for the …
March Monthly March Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 01, 2020 Rating: 5
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2020 Vision

December 30, 2019
Palpable uncertainties that had been hanging over the investment climate in 2019 were lifted at the end.  The UK election leaves no doubt that Brexit will take place at the end of January.  The new NAFTA looks to be ratified in early 2020.  The US and China have reached an agreement that marks a cessation of the escalation of the tit-for-tat tarif…
2020 Vision 2020 Vision Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 30, 2019 Rating: 5
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Big Picture Look at Next Week

October 06, 2013
The 2007-2008 financial crisis elicited a dramatic policy response that saw interventions by the state on a scale not seen in a generation or more.  Yet, what is a distinguishing characteristic now is the weakness of the state.  This assessment is not simply limited to the continued shutdown of the US federal government and the approaching debt ce…
Big Picture Look at Next Week Big Picture Look at Next Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 06, 2013 Rating: 5
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Excellent Timing for Brazil's Double Down

August 23, 2013
(from my colleague Ilan Solot)

Brazilian officials finally pulled a big rabbit out of their policy hat. The central bank committed to selling up to $500 mln in FX swaps daily and up to $1 bln on Fridays – amounting to around $60 bln. The program will last until the end of the year.

In short, the new measure gives markets a far greater degree of …
Excellent Timing for Brazil's Double Down Excellent Timing for Brazil's Double Down Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

August 22, 2013
(from my colleague Ilan Solot)
1) Mexican data is taking a decisive turn for the worse 2) Brazil is stepping up intervention in FX and fixed income markets 3) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly raised the top end of the corridor by 50 bp to 7.75% 4) Peru got upgraded 5) India will now try a bond buyback program 6) In Indonesia will announce a n…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 22, 2013 Rating: 5
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Observations About the Investment Climate

March 11, 2013
After putting in another good week, the US dollar is consolidating its recent gains amid quiet and largely uneventful trading that has kept in fairly narrow trading ranges.

Following Fitch's downgrade of Italy before the weekend, Italian bonds are under a bit a pressure, in a bearish flattening pattern--where yields are rising 3-7 bp across t…
Observations About the Investment Climate Observations About the Investment Climate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 11, 2013 Rating: 5
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Eight FX Considerations for the New Week

January 21, 2013
The US dollar begins the week mostly firmer.  The notable exception is the Japanese yen, which has seen some position adjustment ahead of the outcome of the BOJ meeting tomorrow.  In Asia, and Europe thus far, the dollar has found support near its five day moving average and the 38.2% retracement of its latest leg up (from Jan 16), both of which c…
Eight FX Considerations for the New Week Eight FX Considerations for the New Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic Women CEOs

December 02, 2012
ThisGreat Graphic comes from Motif Investing.  It looks at the women who have climbed corporate hierarchies, their compensation and their role as mothers.   Although it tends to focus on Corporate America, it also provides some helpful international comparisons.   It can be seen partly as a response to AM Slaughter's widely read and discussed…
Great Graphic Women CEOs Great Graphic Women CEOs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Changing Winds

October 17, 2012
Policy makers are taking new measures to address the financial and economic crisis.  The ECB's OMT, the Federal Reserve QE3+ and the BOJ's increase in its asset purchase program is the monetary response.  To this we expect to be added a new round of gilt purchases by the Bank of England.  Australia and Sweden, which have room to cut intere…
The Changing Winds The Changing Winds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: China Exports and New Loans

October 14, 2012
China reported its September trade figures. Exports showed a larger than expected increase. The 9.9% increase was nearly twice the Bloomberg consensus and well above August's 2.7% pace.  
Imports rose 2.4%, after falling for the previous three months.  Of particular interest, copper imports were at their highest level in four months and iron …
Great Graphic: China Exports and New Loans Great Graphic: China Exports and New Loans Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Hold the Press: The IMF Changes Sides

October 12, 2012
A significant event has taken place this week.  It will alter the balance of power between creditors and debtors and help shape the contours of the ongoing policy response to the end of historic credit cycle.  The IMF has not only delivered a mea culpa of sorts, but urges its members to do so too.  
The IMF used to stand for It's Mostly Fiscal.…
Hold the Press: The IMF Changes Sides Hold the Press: The IMF Changes Sides Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Lost Decade Ahead?

September 23, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic from Pew Research Center. It shows that median household income in the US has returned to roughly the level it was at in 1990.  
That is what is so irksome about pundit claims that Americans need to brace themselves for a "lost decade". They already are on their second lost decade.  Hello?
Given the stubbornly hi…
Great Graphic: Lost Decade Ahead? Great Graphic: Lost Decade Ahead? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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Nervous Calm Prevails

September 04, 2012
There is a nervous calm in the foreign exchange market and in the global capital markets more general.   The only significant price action to note is the sharp decline in Spanish and Italian 2-year yields (around 30 and 20 bp respectively) to the lowest levels since the spring, ostensibly in anticipation of ECB purchases.  This has also helped the…
Nervous Calm Prevails Nervous Calm Prevails Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Outlook

August 11, 2012
Market positioning in the week ending August 7 suggests that speculators in the futures market generally agree with our assessment that ECB President Draghi's recent proposal was not a game changer.  The recent pattern continued.  Essentially what this entails is buying the Australian and Canadian dollars and Mexican peso and some light posit…
Currency Positioning and Outlook Currency Positioning and Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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