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Calmer Markets Continue

February 28, 2013
The global capital markets continue to stabilize after the UK downgrade and Italian election results disrupted the start of the week. Investors appear to be finding consolation in assurances from the major central banks that the extraordinarily accommodative monetary policies will continue to for some time. 
These new assurances, if you will, be…
Calmer Markets Continue Calmer Markets Continue Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Shifting Trade Patterns will Reduce Target2 Imbalances

December 10, 2012
The Target2 imbalances caused much consternation earlier this year as some economists focused on them as either signs that a transfer union was a fact on the ground, or alternatively, as a sign of the pending costs to Germany, which German politicians fail to acknowledge.
This Great Graphic comes from the Brussels Blog at the London School of Econ…
Great Graphic: Shifting Trade Patterns will Reduce Target2 Imbalances Great Graphic: Shifting Trade Patterns will Reduce Target2 Imbalances Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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A Few Observations about Europe on Hump Day

September 26, 2012
Two main forces seem to be at work in the global capital markets.  The first is the month-end and quarter-end portfolio adjustments.  The second is a new deterioration of the situation in Europe, led by Spain and Greece.  These forces are combining and weighing on risk-assets in general and European peripheral bonds in paticular.
This is not to m…
A Few Observations about Europe on Hump Day A Few Observations about Europe on Hump Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX: Nervous Consolidation: Correction Pending

July 24, 2012
The foreign exchange market remains in a heightened state of anxiety, but the majors are mostly trading within yesterday's ranges.  The short sales bans in Italy and Spain have not eased the pressure on the local bourses or bond markets.  In fact, for the first time in eleven years, the Spanish 5-year yield moved above the 10-year yield.   It …
FX: Nervous Consolidation: Correction Pending FX: Nervous Consolidation: Correction Pending Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads

July 22, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic from the blog Global Macro Monitorthat provides a useful visual of the change in the sovereign 10-year spreads in Europe over the past week to the left and year-to-date below.  
Some may be surprised that only Spain pays a larger premium over Germany compared to the end of last year.  This  reflects heightened concern that…
Great Graphic: Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Great Graphic: Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Shifting Agenda and Ideological Rigidities

May 21, 2012
Over the weekend, Germany's I.G. Metall reached an agreement with employers in Baden-Wuerttemberg for a wage increase that will likely set the tone for other regions and industries. The 4.3% pay increase covers the year from May 1. However, the previous contract expired at the end of March, so the new deal really covers 13 months, which puts…
Shifting Agenda and Ideological Rigidities Shifting Agenda and Ideological Rigidities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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A Nascent Growth Pact Begins to Take Shape

April 30, 2012
The agenda in the euro zone is changing.  The likely outcome of the weekend elections in Greece and France are just as much an effect as a cause of the shift in the agenda.  For the first time since the crisis began, the German insistence on austerity is being complimented by the push for a growth pact.  We recognized ECB President Draghi's s…
A Nascent Growth Pact Begins to Take Shape A Nascent Growth Pact Begins to Take Shape Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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China Disappointment Buoys Dollar

April 13, 2012
China's Q1 GDP disappointed expectations and market rumors and is the chief driver of the capital markets today.  The official measure of growth was 8.1%.  The consensus was 8.4% before yesterday's rumors of a 9% rise made the rounds and helped lift sentiment--seeing equities rally, gains in the dollar bloc currencies and a weaker dollar.…
China Disappointment Buoys Dollar China Disappointment Buoys Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dutch Update: Problem Unresolved, Pressure Mounts

March 29, 2012
The Dutch government nearly collapsed yesterday as efforts to find more savings to reach its deficit targets is causing near unbearable strains on the fragile coalition. However, highly secretive negotiations are resuming today as there is little alternative shy of new elections.
Recall the sequence of events. A key government agency warned of a b…
Dutch Update: Problem Unresolved, Pressure Mounts Dutch Update: Problem Unresolved, Pressure Mounts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 29, 2012 Rating: 5
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Pressure in the Core: Dutch Treat

March 06, 2012
To the extent there is much investor concerns about the core of the euro area it has tended to focus on the French elections, where the Socialist challenger Hollande has been particularly provocative in his campaign rhetoric. He has called for a dramatic increase in taxes on the wealthy and insists on renegotiating the recently approved fiscal pac…
Pressure in the Core: Dutch Treat Pressure in the Core: Dutch Treat Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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