Marc to Market: Macro

Results for Macro

FOMC and BOE Meet As Investors are Not Persuaded that Efforts to Contain the Financial Crisis are Sufficient

Marc Chandler March 18, 2023

It was widely understood that the Federal Reserve would raise rates until one of three things took place: inflation was clearly on course to return to the target, the labor market would weaken precipitously, or systemic stress threatened. At the same time, the shocks we have had to cope with, Covid, supply chains, and Russia's invasion of Ukra…

FOMC and BOE Meet As Investors are Not Persuaded that Efforts to Contain the Financial Crisis are Sufficient

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 18, 2023 Rating: 5

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Market Prices in a Fed Cut in Q4 Ahead of CPI, While ECB to may Deliver a 50 bp Hawkish Hike

Marc Chandler March 11, 2023

Three macro events highlight the week ahead. The US February CPI will be reported on March 14. The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt will deliver the spring budget on March 15. The ECB meets the following day. A 50 bp hike is discounted not only for this meeting, but that is the bias for the May meeting as well. It seems that US interest r…

Market Prices in a Fed Cut in Q4 Ahead of CPI, While ECB to may Deliver a 50 bp Hawkish Hike

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 11, 2023 Rating: 5

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US Jobs, Kuroda's Last BOJ Meeting, and Powell's Congressional Testimony Highlight the Week Ahead

Marc Chandler March 04, 2023

The dollar peaked last September/October and trended lower until the January jobs report and strong service ISM on February 3. These reports and firm inflation readings, owing, at least in part, to benchmark and methodological changes, helped spur the greenback's recovery. However, we learned last week that auto sales and the service ISM price…

US Jobs, Kuroda's Last BOJ Meeting, and Powell's Congressional Testimony Highlight the Week Ahead

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 04, 2023 Rating: 5

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March 2023

Marc Chandler March 01, 2023

Price pressures remain elevated, and labor markets are strong, giving most policymakers in the G10 the incentive to continue raising interest interests. There are two exceptions: Japan, the only country still with a negative policy rate (-0.10%), and Canada, where the central bank has indicated it would pause. While half-point hikes or larger were…

March 2023

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 01, 2023 Rating: 5

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Week Ahead: February ISM Services and Auto Sales to Show January US Data were Exaggerated

Marc Chandler February 25, 2023

A key issue facing businesses and investors is whether the US January data reflects a reacceleration of the world's largest economy or whether it was mostly a payback for extremely poor November and December 2022 data and seasonal adjustments and methodological distortions. Given the centrality of the US economy and rates, it is not simply a q…

Week Ahead: February ISM Services and Auto Sales to Show January US Data were Exaggerated Week Ahead: February ISM Services and Auto Sales to Show January US Data were Exaggerated

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 25, 2023 Rating: 5

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Week Ahead: Market Seeks Proper Balance after Exaggerating in Both Directions

Marc Chandler February 18, 2023

The pendulum of market sentiment swung from fear of a synchronized recession in the US and Europe to optimism that a recession can be avoid. The perceived reduction of downside risks had driven the upside performance of equities and bonds. Just as the data seems to confirm it, the rally in in stocks and bonds faltered. The MSCI Emerging Markets eq…

Week Ahead: Market Seeks Proper Balance after Exaggerating in Both Directions Week Ahead: Market Seeks Proper Balance after Exaggerating in Both Directions