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The End Game Approaches

June 25, 2022
The pendulum of market sentiment swings dramatically.  It has swung from nearly everyone and their sister complaining that the Federal Reserve was lagging behind the surge in prices to fear of a recession.  On June 15, at the conclusion of the last FOMC meeting, the swaps market priced in a 4.60% terminal Fed funds rate.  That seemed like a stretc…
The End Game Approaches The End Game Approaches Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 25, 2022 Rating: 5
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Too Much of a Good Thing

June 18, 2022
Forget the adage about measuring twice and cutting once. Aside from the Bank of Japan, major central banks are in a hurry to tighten financial conditions even as a cyclical slowdown weakens demand. The Federal Reserve's decision to hike by 75 bp instead of the 50 bp that it had previously guided investors and businesses to expect was primarily…
Too Much of a Good Thing Too Much of a Good Thing Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 18, 2022 Rating: 5
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June Monthly

May 31, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's response to Covid continue to shape the broader investment climate. Europe is making efforts to reduce reliance on Russia's energy. Ultimately, the disruption to Ukrainian food shipments is a different story, and protectionism measures by India, Malaysia, and Indonesia do not help matters. An es…
June Monthly June Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2022 Rating: 5
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May 2022 Monthly

May 01, 2022
The general contours of the business and investment climate are being shaped by three forces.  First, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions boost price pressures and slow growth.  It was a supply shock.  Even before the war, countries had begun stepping back from the powerful monetary and fiscal support provided during the pandemic.  …
May 2022 Monthly May 2022 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 01, 2022 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: EMU CPI and GDP, US GDP, and BOJ Meeting Highlights

April 23, 2022
The US dollar is having a good month. Against the euro and yen, it is appreciating for the fourth consecutive month. Rising rates continue to appear to be the main driver.  The divergence of monetary policy is palpable.  At the same time, it is not simply a positive news story in the US but also less constructive developments in Japan and the euro…
Week Ahead: EMU CPI and GDP, US GDP, and BOJ Meeting Highlights Week Ahead:  EMU CPI and GDP, US GDP, and BOJ Meeting Highlights Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 23, 2022 Rating: 5
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