Results for Latin America
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

December 09, 2013
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM currencies are coming off a strong week, but the rally appears to be running out of steam as some are already giving back some of their recent gains. MXN has gained nearly 3% vs. USD over the past week, followed closely by INR (up 2%) and RUB (up 1.5%). Notable underperformers are IDR (down nearly 2% vs. USD)…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead

November 18, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 

Emerging market currencies are coming off of a strong week, and are starting off this week on a firmer note as well. The best performers over the past week are MXN (+2.5% vs. USD), BRL (+2.5%), ZAR (+2.5%), and PLN (+1% vs. EUR). The laggards were IDR (-0.6% vs. USD), ARS (-0.5%), PHP, and CNY (bo…
Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 18, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Where Do We Stand ?

November 06, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
EM currencies have traded in several distinct phases this year. After a strong start to the year, the EM rally was derailed by Bernanke’s tapering speech on May 22. EM currencies sold off for much of the summer, with most bottoming in late August or early September as weaker US data lowered the per…
Emerging Markets: Where Do We Stand ? Emerging Markets: Where Do We Stand ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2013 Rating: 5
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EM FX and Equities - Where Do We Stand Now?

August 28, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

We think it would be a good idea to again take a step back to see how EM FX and equities have performed after the recent chaotic price action. After selling off after Bernanke’s tapering talk starting May 22, EM FX then bottomed in late June/early July before staging a modest corrective recovery as…
EM FX and Equities - Where Do We Stand Now? EM FX and Equities - Where Do We Stand Now? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Brazil Central Bank Preview

August 27, 2013
(from me colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
The Brazilian central bank (BCB) announces its decision tomorrow after markets close, when markets almost universally expect rates to be increased by 50 bp to 9.00%. We side with consensus on this one.
Last week’s heavy handed FX measures by the BCB should be enough to put to rest any speculation o…
Brazil Central Bank Preview Brazil Central Bank Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

July 22, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

The most contentious event this week will be the Turkish central bank meeting - observers still differ on the magnitude of the increase in the overnight lending rate. Hungary should cut rates by 25 bp, while the Philippines and Colombian central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged. On the dat…
EM Preview for the Week Ahead EM Preview for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 22, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market FX and Equities--Where do We Stand?

July 19, 2013
(from Dr. Win Thin)
We think it would be a good idea to take a step back to see how EM FX and equities have performed during this recent bounce. Many EM currencies peaked against the dollar and the euro in early May, but then gave up ground, especially after Bernanke’s tapering talk starting May 22. EM FX then bottomed in late June/early July, …
Emerging Market FX and Equities--Where do We Stand? Emerging Market FX and Equities--Where do We Stand? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 19, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: Headwinds Generate Policy Response (but not in Brazil) Emerging Market Preview: Headwinds Generate Policy Response (but not in Brazil) Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Overview of Hot Spots in Emerging Markets

March 12, 2013
This overview was written by my colleague Ilan Solot. It provides a thumbnail sketch of the key developments in seven emerging markets. I found it helpful and hope you do too.
1) China is rebalancing its policy framework towards a (slightly) greater focus on inflation
2) Brazil is gearing up to tighten very soon
3) Mexico has cut rates, but MXN…
Overview of Hot Spots in Emerging Markets Overview of Hot Spots in Emerging Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 12, 2013 Rating: 5
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Latam Nationalizations: A Dog Bites Man Story?

May 02, 2012
That a couple of Latin American countries have recently announced the expropriation of foreign investors in the energy sector seems hardly like new news. After all, cycles of nationalization and privatization have unfolded for more than half a century. Moreover, the expropriation simply marked the latest illiberal measures by Argentina and Boliv…
Latam Nationalizations: A Dog Bites Man Story? Latam Nationalizations: A Dog Bites Man Story? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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CFTC FX Positioning Update: Not What You Think

March 24, 2012
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC covers the week ending March 20.  Among the major currency futures, there was dramatic reduction of net short speculative positions.  To appreciate how this was achieved is only possible by disaggregating the data.  
The net speculative euro short position was cut to about 83k contracts from 99…
CFTC FX Positioning Update: Not What You Think CFTC FX Positioning Update: Not What You Think Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Mexico Update: Peso Poised to Recover

August 15, 2011
The Mexican peso has been among the worst performing of the more actively trading currencies against the dollar since the start of the month. Yet in the coming weeks, if a more stable tone in the markets emerge, the peso is a likely candidate for out-performance.
There are two main considerations for this optimism. First, the slide in the peso of …
Mexico Update: Peso Poised to Recover Mexico Update: Peso Poised to Recover Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2011 Rating: 5
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Mexico Snaps Six Day Advance, Correlated with Equities

July 05, 2011
The Mexican peso is losing ground against the dollar today for the first time in seven sessions. The peso's heavier tone is consistent with the generally heavier tone among emerging market currencies today. Concerns about global growth, with softer than expected PMI readings from China and Europe, concern that China may still hike rates, and t…
Mexico Snaps Six Day Advance, Correlated with Equities Mexico Snaps Six Day Advance, Correlated with Equities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2011 Rating: 5
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Fourth of July Note

July 04, 2011
The US dollar is mixed against the major and emerging market foreign currencies. It is largely consolidating the losses suffered in recent sessions as the Greek government survived a vote of confidence and parliament approved a new austerity program in the face of public protests. 
This led to the EU approval of the next tranche of aid under the pl…
Fourth of July Note Fourth of July Note Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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March Madness

February 25, 2011
If you thought this year was off to a challenging start for investors, fasten your seatbelts. March could very well turn out to be the most important month of the year. This does not mean there is easy money to be made or low-hanging fruit that can be picked.
To the contrary, the event risks are such that even the most insightful investors may be …
March Madness March Madness Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 25, 2011 Rating: 5
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Currencies and Commodities

January 04, 2011
One of the market developments that is capturing the imagination (and wallets) of investors is the rally in commodities. As an example, since late Aug '10, when Fed Chairman Bernanke seemed to signal QEII and US economic data began improving more noticeably, the CRB index has rallied about 30%. Roughly a third of the gain was recorded since la…
Currencies and Commodities Currencies and Commodities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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Mexico Update: Century Bond and More

October 06, 2010
Mexico is taking advantage of the investment climate and the near insatiable demand for emerging market credits. The peso may also benefit from actions by other countries, from Brazil to South Korea taking actions to deter hot money inflows.
Yesterday. Mexico brought a 100-year bond to market, an unprecedented duration for Latam and a rare issue i…
Mexico Update: Century Bond and More Mexico Update: Century Bond and More Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 06, 2010 Rating: 5
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CAD-MXN Opportunity

September 29, 2010
The Canadian dollar has under-performed this month. Among the G10 currencies, only sterling (+2.2%) and the yen (+1%) have done worse than the Loonie, which is up about 2.4% against the greenback. In the current environment, with the prospects of QEII in the US, Canada seems markedly better positioned. Since Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech the …
CAD-MXN Opportunity CAD-MXN Opportunity Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 29, 2010 Rating: 5
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Update: India, Brazil, Mexico

September 24, 2010
India: Earlier today India lifted the cap on foreign ownership of government and corporate bonds. This had been anticipated, but it runs counter to the rash of media reports suggesting that rise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies after last week's BOJ intervention. Foreign investors can now hold as much as $10 bln worth of Indian government bonds…
Update: India, Brazil, Mexico Update: India, Brazil, Mexico Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 24, 2010 Rating: 5
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Japan to Help California ?

September 14, 2010
Japan finds itself in a bind. Although Japanese portfolio capital outflows have been strong in recent weeks, they have not been sufficient to offset the purchases of yen. Japan needs the yen to be sold. On the other hand, some US states need funds. One way to square the circle emerged late yesterday. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation of…
Japan to Help California ? Japan to Help California ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 14, 2010 Rating: 5
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