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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

October 03, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Brazilian central bank sounds more hawkish; Moody’s sounds more bearish
 Bank of Israel will increase its dollar purchases to $3.5 bln in 2014
The Colombian central bank reduced its dollar purchase program
Price action this week: Brazil (-2%), Chile (-2%), and Singapore (-1.5%) have underperformed …
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets:  What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 26, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) Brazil's central bank is not tapering its FX intervention plan

2) The Philippine central bank outlined the tools it will use to counter Fed tapering

3) The RBI is taking further steps to improve the liquidity situation and help stabilized capital markets

4) There were some…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead

September 23, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) Israeli central bank holds policy meeting Monday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.25%. The central bank is in limbo as the search for a new Governor continues. Interim Governor Flug could move rates if given a compelling reason, but for now. The data suggest a wait and see approach is most …
Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview:  The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Policy and Data Weekly Preview

August 26, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

Israel central bank meets Monday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.25%. Acting Governor Flug continues to chair the meetings as the search for a successor to Fischer continues. There are reportedly three candidates that have met with the vetting committee. ILS has gotten caught up in the E…
Emerging Markets: Policy and Data Weekly Preview Emerging Markets:  Policy and Data Weekly Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

August 08, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1) The BOK is sounding pro-active again about the risks to KRW weakness, even though the currency is strengthening
2) The Thai government joined the group of EM countries providing extra fiscal support
3) India’s central bank has a new Governor
4) The search for the next Bank of Israel Governor has …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

August 01, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1. Israel has a new central bank governor 2. There is more talk about liberalizing deposit rates in China 3. Reserve Bank of India sounded more dovish than some had expected
1. Israel has a new central bank governor. Leonardo Leiderman was named central bank chief, contrary to expectations by many …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 01, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

July 29, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

Israel central bank meets today and is expected to keep policy unchanged. A dovish bias is likely to remain in place, and the resumption of easing becomes more likely if the shekel remains firm. Indeed, we expect further FX intervention if the 3.55 is tested again.
The Reserve Bank of India meets T…
Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead Emerging Markets:  Preview for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Events

June 24, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

The Israeli central bank met today and as expected, kept rates steady at 1.25%. Given the turmoil in the global markets right now, we think it makes sense to stand pat, but we believe the bank maintains a dovish bias. We also think policy will remain dovish under Governor-elect Frenkel. The shekel…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Events Emerging Markets:  Preview of the Week Ahead Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 24, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview in the Week Ahead

June 10, 2013
(from my colleagues, Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

Emerging market currencies remain under pressure at the start of the week. We continue to think that countries with poor fundamentals and high financing needs (twin deficits) will fare poorly as fears of scarcer global capital build ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
Turkey reports Q1 GDP on Tues…
Emerging Market Preview in the Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 10, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed?

May 16, 2013
(From my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

This is what has changed in the EM space, in our view: 
1) The Bank of Israel surprised with a 25 bp rate cut Monday, an intra-meeting move
2) EUR/CZK traded above 26 for the first time since November 2011, as Q1 GDP came in much worse than expected at -1.9% y/y vs. -1.7% y/y in Q4
3) On the other hand, EUR/HUF mo…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed? Emerging Markets:  What Has Changed?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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This Week's Emerging Market Highlights

April 29, 2013
(from my colleague, Dr. Win Thin)
China official manufacturing PMI will be reported Wednesday, and is expected to drop to 50.7 from 50.9. HSBC final manufacturing PMI will be reported Thursday, and is expected at 50.5 vs. flash reading of 50.6 and 51.6 final in March. We continue to believe that China growth will stabilize around the 8% level, bu…
This Week's Emerging Market Highlights This Week's Emerging Market Highlights Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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What has Changed in the Emerigng Markets?

April 11, 2013
(from my colleague Ilan Solot )

1) The Bank of Korea is becoming more independent 2) We expect the Brazilian Central Bank to start hiking by 25 bp in May 3) Israel intervened to weaken the shekel for the first time since July 2011 4) Chile is stepping up its FX intervention rhetoric 5) Mexico suspends USD auctions to prevent peso weakness
1) The …
What has Changed in the Emerigng Markets? What has Changed in the Emerigng Markets? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 11, 2013 Rating: 5
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Eight FX Considerations for the New Week

January 21, 2013
The US dollar begins the week mostly firmer.  The notable exception is the Japanese yen, which has seen some position adjustment ahead of the outcome of the BOJ meeting tomorrow.  In Asia, and Europe thus far, the dollar has found support near its five day moving average and the 38.2% retracement of its latest leg up (from Jan 16), both of which c…
Eight FX Considerations for the New Week Eight FX Considerations for the New Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: How Israel's Iron Dome Works

November 20, 2012
I found this Great Graphicon Thomson Reuters. It illustrates how the Israel's "Iron Dome" works and how it is planned to evolve in the coming year.   Reports suggest that it has had a 90% hit rate on incoming missiles.

While futurists talk about the competition for a low-carbon economy or a post-automobile transportation system, ther…
Great Graphic: How Israel's Iron Dome Works Great Graphic: How Israel's Iron Dome Works Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Market Update and Three Items that Should be on Your Radar Screen

August 13, 2012
The US dollar remains confined to its recent well worn ranges against the major currencies.   A quiet Asian session gave way to a euro bounce in the European morning, which was the main price action.  Euro gains were across the board and but with intra-day technical readings stretched, look for the $1.2335-50 area to cap it. 

The much anticipat…
Market Update and Three Items that Should be on Your Radar Screen Market Update and Three Items that Should be on Your Radar Screen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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