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Consolidative Tone Overshadows Economic Data

January 07, 2014
There is still a holiday hang-over in the markets, where many seem reluctant make new commitments ahead of the key developments in the coming days.  These include ECB's Draghi's press conference and the US jobs data.    Economic data that including surprisingly strong German retail sales (Nov +1.5% month-over-month) and a smaller than expe…
Consolidative Tone Overshadows Economic Data Consolidative Tone Overshadows Economic Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 07, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Irish Banks' Bond Holdings

November 28, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from Vic Duggan's blog.  The data comes from the Irish Central bank Monthly Statistics (October 2012). 
The first one depicts Irish Banks' holdings of sovereign debt.  It illustrates what we have called "financial disintegration".  This is the process of financial integration in reverse.  
It is characte…
Great Graphic: Irish Banks' Bond Holdings Great Graphic: Irish Banks' Bond Holdings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Portugal and Ireland: Us Too, Please

November 27, 2012
Greece has had trouble implementing the structural reforms demanded in exchange for aid.  The large and rising debt/GDP ratio is also a function of the larger than officially (Troika) expected contraction in the Greek economy.  The resolution achieved after protracted debate includes an easing of the debt servicing vis lower interest rates, defer…
Portugal and Ireland: Us Too, Please Portugal and Ireland: Us Too, Please Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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Europe Raises Bar, Japan Dithers

October 26, 2012
The US dollar is narrowly mixed against most of the major foreign currencies as the week winds down.  The big mover is the Japanese yen which is showing some resilience. Initially in Asia, the greenback had extended its recent gains to almost JPY80.40 before reversing to return toward yesterday's lows near JPY79.80.  A break of this area, and …
Europe Raises Bar, Japan Dithers Europe Raises Bar, Japan Dithers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Average Interest Rates on Debt

August 14, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from Also Sprach Analyst blog.   It depicts the yields of the periphery and Germany in an important way that is often overlooked.  It shows the average yield that the countries are paying on their debt.   Many observers  focus on some part of the curve, which helps make comparative claims and generates relative value trad…
Great Graphic: Average Interest Rates on Debt Great Graphic: Average Interest Rates on Debt Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Should ECB Sell Bunds?

August 14, 2012
The US dollar is  mostly softer as the broad position adjustment phase continues.    Whatever momentum there was though eased in the European morning after the modest upside surprise in German and French Q2 GDP estimates failed to translate into a stronger euro area GDP figure.  The 0.2% contraction was spot on consensus.  The German economy expa…
Should ECB Sell Bunds? Should ECB Sell Bunds? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Calm before the Storm?

July 09, 2012
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major foreign currencies today as a consolidative tone emerges pending fresh developments. The euro made a marginal 2-year low in early Asia, but narrow ranges have prevailed and the euro has traded in a little more than a quarter cent range in Europe, mostly below $1.23. The dollar has been i…
Calm before the Storm? Calm before the Storm? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events

July 05, 2012
The US dollar is trading near its best levels for the week against the euro, Swiss franc and sterling ahead of ECB and BOE meetings, and US ADP and service ISM.  New market moving developments are scarce and the market has largely traded within the ranges set at the end of last week.  The Australian and Canadian dollars have seen some follow thro…
Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currencies Continue To Consolidate

July 03, 2012
The holiday abbreviated US equity and bond session today will likely ensure that the major currencies continue to trade in narrow ranges.  With the BOE/ECB meeting outcomes Thursday and the US employment data Friday, the price action could very well resemble a coiling spring, with a big move to follow this consolidative phase.  
There have been a…
Currencies Continue To Consolidate Currencies Continue To Consolidate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Ten Observations on Europe

July 02, 2012
1.  The fact that access to the EFSF/ESM requires unanimous approval from the seventeen participants means that Merkel preserved the German veto.  This circumscribes the victory claimed by Hollande, Monti and Rajoy.   Germany also successfully resisted pressure to increase the size of the funds, even though many, if not most, observers suspect th…
Ten Observations on Europe Ten Observations on Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Quick Word on Price Action

June 29, 2012
The EU Summit results are the main driver of the capital markets.   Expectations had rightfully been depressed.  The fact that it appears that Germany and the creditors blinked caught the market leaning the wrong way.  
Secondarily, the softness of the US personal consumption in May and the back month revisions of real PCE (implied too by the GDP …
Quick Word on Price Action Quick Word on Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 29, 2012 Rating: 5
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US, Ireland, and Italy: Quick Survey of House Prices and Sales

June 26, 2012
The recent data suggests the US and Irish housing markets are stabilizing, while news from Italy has been poor.
The April reading from S&P/Case-Shiller showed a 1.9% year-over-year decline in property prices. This is the smallest decline since late 2010 and was a smaller decline than the 2.5% expected by the consensus. New home sales reported…
US, Ireland, and Italy: Quick Survey of House Prices and Sales US, Ireland, and Italy: Quick Survey of House Prices and Sales Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Video Explaining Risk of Reversible Union

June 17, 2012
Entertaining short piece that captures the challenges that face Greece and Europe.  It comes via the Economist.  It underscores a point we made:  European officials did themselves a disservice by even suggesting that monetary union is reversible.  See here:

Video Explaining Risk of Reversible Union Video Explaining Risk of Reversible Union Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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EU/Spain and China Spur Collective Sigh of Relief

June 11, 2012
The US dollar is broadly weaker. However, after being marked down sharply in Asia it is clawing its way back in Europe. Global equities’ sigh of relief to both the EU-Spain aid and China’s slew of data has sparked among the best gains of the year in the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index (+1.8%), though India did not participate (0.25%) and S&P’s warni…
EU/Spain and China Spur Collective Sigh of Relief EU/Spain and China Spur Collective Sigh of Relief Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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News Stream Poor, Look Out Below

June 01, 2012
It is difficult to envisage a poorer stream of news that the market received earlier today.   Weak reports increase the prospects of a policy response soon.  China could cut reserve requirements this weekend.  Next week the RBA, ECB and BOE meet and the risks have increased for for action.  The issue in Australia is between a 25 and 50 bp cut.  T…
News Stream Poor, Look Out Below News Stream Poor, Look Out Below Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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Month-End Adjustment Gives Brief Reprieve

May 31, 2012
The US dollar is mostly softer against major and emerging market currencies today.  Many observers will talk about the string of better than expected data from Europe and the polls that suggest the ND are ahead in Greece and that the Irish will easily support the fiscal pact in today's referendum.  Yet the risk is that the firmer tone in the …
Month-End Adjustment Gives Brief Reprieve Month-End Adjustment Gives Brief Reprieve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Billion Dollar Question Great Graphic: The Billion Dollar Question Reviewed by magonomics on May 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Flash: EU Head Fake?

May 30, 2012
EU says it will consider allowing banks borrow directly from the ESM.  This is a head fake.  The ESM does not exist yet.  It is not ultimately the EU's decision.  The ECB and Germany will also have a say.  The reason that banks are unable to borrow directly from the ESM is that it lets the sovereign off the hook.  Borrowing from those facili…
Flash: EU Head Fake? Flash: EU Head Fake? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Memorial Day Update

May 28, 2012
The US dollar is broadly lower in relatively subdued activity. The major development over the weekend that has encouraged some reduction of risk averseness is several polls in Greece that showed the New Democracy pulling ahead of Syriza. Global equity markets are mostly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining about 0.75% and the most …
Memorial Day Update Memorial Day Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Calmer Tone Ahead of the Weekend

May 25, 2012
A nervous and fragile calm has settled over the global capital markets.   The dollar has been thus far confined to yesterday's ranges against sterling and the euro, and attempts to push the dollar higher faltered against the yen and Swiss franc, leaving the greenback is narrowly mixed on the day.  European equities are mostly slightly firmer,…
Calmer Tone Ahead of the Weekend Calmer Tone Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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