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What the Greek Deal Does and Does Not Do

Marc Chandler May 25, 2016

For investors, the most important thing about the successful review of Greece's implementation of last year's agreement is that it effectively removes it from the list of potential disruptive factors in the coming quarters. There will be no repeat of last year's drama.
Assuming Greece resolves a few outstanding issues in the coming …

What the Greek Deal Does and Does Not Do Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 25, 2016 Rating: 5

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Greece Back in Play as BBK Strikes out at the German Government

Marc Chandler August 12, 2013
An internal Bundesbank report that has been leaked warns that Greece is going to need new funding next year. In some respects, this is hardly news. The IMF, part of the Troika of official creditors that been managing the assistance program, has been saying this for quite some time.
It has been the German government that has played this down, …

Greece Back in Play as BBK Strikes out at the German Government Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2013 Rating: 5

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Korea Complains the Loudest about Japan Ahead of G8 meeting

Marc Chandler June 03, 2013
South Korea's finance minister and deputy prime minister has called upon the G8 for coordinated response to mitigate the impact of what Japan calls quantitative and qualitative easing.
Fat chance. For several years, Japan has been harangued to reflate the world's second largest economy. It appears to be finally doing so, and Prime Mini…

Korea Complains the Loudest about Japan Ahead of G8 meeting Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2013 Rating: 5

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Dollar Heavy, Sterling Leads Charge

Marc Chandler April 25, 2013
A shift in the news stream, with more disappointing US economic news and some positive developments in Europe seemed to have begun weighing on the dollar and that shift has been solidified today. Although the dollar extended yesterday's pullback in Asia, it was the stronger than expected UK GDP pushed it through support.
The UK is the firs…

Dollar Heavy, Sterling Leads Charge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2013 Rating: 5

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Fragile Tone Continues

Marc Chandler April 17, 2013
The global capital markets that stabilized yesterday, still seem fragile today. The yen was sold in Asia for the second consecutive session and gold also continued to post corrective upticks, but there are signs that the animal spirits have not been rekindled. Japanese government bond yields are higher, ahead of tomorrow's 20-year bond auct…

Fragile Tone Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 17, 2013 Rating: 5

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Macro View

Marc Chandler April 15, 2013
The new week has begun off like the last week ended. The yen and the dollar are firm against the major and emerging market currencies. The sell-off in the precious metals continues. Japanese bond yields rose and the yield curve steepened. The 10-year yield spread between the US and Japan continues to narrow and now near 107 bp is the lowest si…

Macro View Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 15, 2013 Rating: 5

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Two Weekend Developments

Marc Chandler April 14, 2013
There have been two developments over the weekend that may impact trading when the markets reopen on April 15 in Asia. Technically, they both took place on Friday, but after many markets were closed.
We begin with the largest drop in gold prices in two months. The expansion of central bank balance sheets was supposed to lead to the debasement o…

Two Weekend Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 14, 2013 Rating: 5

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Great Graphic: Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt

Marc Chandler April 14, 2013
This Great Graphic comes the the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook. For a selected group of countries, it shows the bank holdings of government debt in Q1 2006 (pre-crisis) and Q3 2012 as a percentage of overall bank assets.

There are several countries included where sovereign holdings in Q3 12 are a smaller part of bank assets than in Q1 …

Great Graphic: Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 14, 2013 Rating: 5

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Cyprus: The Unique Template in Nine Theses

Marc Chandler March 25, 2013
Based on the latest discoveries, such as seen in this picture from the European Space Agency, scientists are concluding that the universe is not inflating quite as fast as they previously thought. And so too, back here on Earth, we are finding things are not quite as they may have appeared. The attempt to reflate the world economy is proving mo…

Cyprus: The Unique Template in Nine Theses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2013 Rating: 5

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Three Impulses Dominate FX at the Week's End

Marc Chandler January 25, 2013
As the week draws to a close, there are three independent drivers in the foreign exchange market. The first two are the weakness in the yen and sterling. The third is the push higher in the euro.
We had not expected the dollar to close above JPY90 in North America yesterday and it has not looked back. Comments from some Japanese officials, s…

Three Impulses Dominate FX at the Week's End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 25, 2013 Rating: 5

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Cyrpus: The Dog that Didn't Bite...Yet

Marc Chandler December 18, 2012
Last week Eurogroup head Juncker warned that the situation tiny Cyprus was more worrisome than Greece. While this seemed to be an exercise in hyperbole, sure enough Monday, a Cyprus official was quoted on the news wires warning of an imminent default.
Hang on. Didn't Cyprus reach a memorandum of understanding with the Troika ? Indeed, it…

Cyrpus: The Dog that Didn't Bite...Yet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 18, 2012 Rating: 5

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Great Graphic: IMF GDP Projections

Marc Chandler December 09, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from Bloomberg's Business Week, which itself is drawn from IMF data. We have noted before how poorly the IMF has forecast Greek GDP and this helps explain why the debt/GDP ratio is deteriorated more than expected.
The first panel shows how poorly forecast euro area growth. It recently admitted it under-estimated …

Great Graphic: IMF GDP Projections Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 09, 2012 Rating: 5

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Capital Controls

Marc Chandler December 03, 2012
News that a large Swiss bank will begin charging business clients a negative interest rate for holding Swiss franc deposits has gotten some observers suggesting this is a form of capital control.   Usually capital controls refer to sovereign action. In the late 1970s, both Germany and Switzerland did in fact impose negative rates on foreign depo…

Capital Controls Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 03, 2012 Rating: 5

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Euro Rises despite Official Failures, Yen Consolidates

Marc Chandler November 23, 2012
One would not know it by looking at the euro sitting at its best level in three weeks that European officials have failed to reach not one, but two agreements this week--to secure Greek funding and to agree on a new 7-year budget for the EU.
Of course some observers are playing up the stronger than expected German IFO and the better French busin…

Euro Rises despite Official Failures, Yen Consolidates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2012 Rating: 5

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Misunderstanding IMF COFER Adjustments

Marc Chandler November 20, 2012
There is a buzz from the sidelines of the foreign exchange market that the IMF is considering classifying the Australian and Canadian dollars as reserve currencies. This is a misleading way to characterize what is happening.
It is already well documented that a number of central banks, including German, Swiss, and Russian central banks have added…

Misunderstanding IMF COFER Adjustments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 20, 2012 Rating: 5

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Great Graphic: IMF Forecasts of Greek Economy

Marc Chandler November 15, 2012
This Great Graphic was posted on Zero Hedge. It shows the IMF's forecast for the Greek economy and the actual performance. Obviously the track record is dismal.
The take-away for Zero Hedge is that the Troika's forecasts are a "joke". It seems to me that this is not a very help way to frame the issue. Moreover, the IMF has…

Great Graphic: IMF Forecasts of Greek Economy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 15, 2012 Rating: 5

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Jousting in the FX Market

Marc Chandler November 15, 2012
There are several important developments today. In terms of price action, the yen is the most noteworthy. It has sold off as the market anticipates next month’s election will produce an LDP-led government that is talking very aggressively about breaking deflation’s grip and arresting yen strength, through open-ended QE, interest rates at or belo…

Jousting in the FX Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 15, 2012 Rating: 5

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Debate over Greece Rages On

Marc Chandler November 13, 2012
The German paper Bild reported that Germany may be willing to make a lump aid payment to Greece of 44 bln euros. This popped the euro up a little more than half a cent to the session high just below $1.2730.
Color me skeptical. To give Greece such a large sum at once is counter to the underlying strategy of doling out the aid in tranches to pro…

Debate over Greece Rages On Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 13, 2012 Rating: 5

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Bernanke Fires Salvo in Response to Currency War Claims

Marc Chandler October 15, 2012
The Federal Reserve's open-end asset purchase plan (QE3+) is controversial. Bernanke has defended its action against the domestic critics. Over the weekend he defended QE3+ against foreign critics.

Some in the emerging markets, most notably Brazil's finance minister, has claimed the unorthodox easing by the Federal Reserve in parti…

Bernanke Fires Salvo in Response to Currency War Claims Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2012 Rating: 5

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Hold the Press: The IMF Changes Sides

Marc Chandler October 12, 2012
A significant event has taken place this week. It will alter the balance of power between creditors and debtors and help shape the contours of the ongoing policy response to the end of historic credit cycle. The IMF has not only delivered a mea culpa of sorts, but urges its members to do so too.
The IMF used to stand for It's Mostly Fiscal.…

Hold the Press: The IMF Changes Sides Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 12, 2012 Rating: 5