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Is Conventional Wisdom Too Optimistic? The Week Ahead

November 23, 2019
There have been three general issues that the macro-fundamental picture has revolved around this year:  trade, growth, and Brexit.  On all three counts, conventional wisdom seems unduly optimistic, and this may have helped dampen volatility.
A series of signals suggest that the US and China remain far apart in trade negotiations.  The US wants Chin…
Is Conventional Wisdom Too Optimistic? The Week Ahead Is Conventional Wisdom Too Optimistic? The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2019 Rating: 5
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Europe's Flash PMI Disappoints and Hong Kong Shares Advance Ahead of Sunday's Election Europe's Flash PMI Disappoints and Hong Kong Shares Advance Ahead of Sunday's Election Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2019 Rating: 5
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Markets Hear What it Wants from China's Chief Negotiator, but HK maybe New Obstacle Markets Hear What it Wants from China's Chief Negotiator, but HK maybe New Obstacle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 21, 2019 Rating: 5
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Hong Kong Stocks Rally as Stand-Off Continues

November 19, 2019
Overview: The run-up in equities continues to be the dominant development in the capital markets. Although the Japanese and South Korean bourses fell, the rise in Australia, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan underpin the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The Hang Seng's gains  (1.5% on top of yesterday's 1.3% rise) are notable as the situation on the gr…
Hong Kong Stocks Rally as Stand-Off Continues Hong Kong Stocks Rally as Stand-Off Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 19, 2019 Rating: 5
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Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week

November 18, 2019
Overview: Equities in Europe and the US look to extend their six-week rally, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gets back on the winning way after stumbling last week. Despite the escalation of the conflict in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 1.35% to lead the region and recoup a chunk of last week's 4.8% slump. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 puts the Eu…
Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 18, 2019 Rating: 5
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Economic Entrails in the Week Ahead

November 16, 2019
The exaggeration of the significance of a few data points led many observers to posit a synchronized global economic rebound.  Disappointing data from China, Japan, and Australia last week suggested that the Asia Pacific region is not experiencing it. 
Japan's export prowess is a thing of the past.  Net exports were a drag on Q3 GDP. The Octobe…
Economic Entrails in the Week Ahead Economic Entrails in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 16, 2019 Rating: 5
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Market Runs with US Line that US-China Deal is Close

November 15, 2019
Overview: Comments by US presidential adviser Kudlow playing up the prospects of a trade agreement between the US and China, with other reports suggesting a key call will be held today, is helping to underpin sentiment into the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared this week's loss today, with China the only main market not participating,…
Market Runs with US Line that US-China Deal is Close Market Runs with US Line that US-China Deal is Close Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 15, 2019 Rating: 5
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Dollar Consolidates and Equities Follow Asia Lower

November 11, 2019
Overview: Escalating violence in Hong Kong and the continued fall in Chinese producer prices weighed on equities in Asia Pacific trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen nearly 7% during the five-week rally and is off to a weak start this week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell around 2.6%, its biggest loss in three months, and China's CSI …
Dollar Consolidates and Equities Follow Asia Lower Dollar Consolidates and Equities Follow Asia Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 11, 2019 Rating: 5
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Trade Optimism Boosts Sentiment but Weighs on the Dollar

November 07, 2019
Overview: Indications that a phase one agreement between the US and China would include rolling back some existing tariffs is boosting risking appetites, sending stocks higher, and pushing up yields. However, this appears to be simply a restating of China's views rather than a new breakthrough. The dollar is paring its recent gains. The MSCI A…
Trade Optimism Boosts Sentiment but Weighs on the Dollar Trade Optimism Boosts Sentiment but Weighs on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2019 Rating: 5
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