Results for Great Graphic
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Great Graphic: Views Distill to Short Sterling Long Yen Opportunity

September 23, 2019
We have argued that the road to an orderly Brexit remains arduous and that sterling had entered an important technical area ($1.2500-$1.2530).  At the same time, see the dollar as having approached the upper end of its broad trading range against the yen.  One of the important drivers lifting the dollar was the dramatic rise in US yields.  We thou…
Great Graphic: Views Distill to Short Sterling Long Yen Opportunity Great Graphic: Views Distill to Short Sterling Long Yen Opportunity Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 23, 2019 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Euro's (OECD) PPP

June 12, 2019
US President Trump recently bemoaned the fact that the euro is undervalued.  While his critics complain that he is prone to exaggeration, in this case, the euro is undervalued.  This Great Graphicisa long-term chart of the euro has moved around its purchasing power parity as measured by the OECD.  Currently, the euro is about 22% undervalued, and …
Great Graphic: Euro's (OECD) PPP Great Graphic: Euro's (OECD) PPP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 12, 2019 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Dollar Index Climbs a Wall of Worry

December 03, 2018
To be sure, the Dollar Index is not the dollar.  It is not even a trade-weighted measure of the dollar. Two of America's largest trading partners, China and Mexico, are not represented. It is heavily weighted to the euro and currencies that move in its orbit, like the Swiss franc Swedish krona, and arguably the British pound. 
It is primarily …
Great Graphic: The Dollar Index Climbs a Wall of Worry Great Graphic: The Dollar Index Climbs a Wall of Worry Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 03, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500

November 29, 2018
The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood.  There may be little that can resist it until next Friday's employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year.  Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%.  As this drops out of the year-over-year c…
Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500 Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Euro and Yen Outlook

November 05, 2018
Broadly speaking,  the risk is that the dollar's cyclical advance is not complete.  The drivers will likely remain in place through at least the middle of next year.  Additional gradual interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and a favorable policy mix underpin the dollar.  The Federal Reserve projects four rate hikes between now and the en…
Euro and Yen Outlook Euro and Yen Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 05, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: What is Happening to Global Equities?

October 15, 2018
The decline in the global equity market is the most serious since the February and March spill.   In this Great Graphic, the white line is the S&P 500.  With the setback, it is up a little more than 8% for the year.  It managed to recover fully from the sell-off earlier in the year.  
The fuchsia line is the MSCI World Index of developed countr…
Great Graphic: What is Happening to Global Equities? Great Graphic: What is Happening to Global Equities? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Dollar's Role

October 04, 2018
This Great Graphic comes from Peter Coy and team's article in Business Week.   It succinctly shows three metrics for the internationalization of domestic currencies: global payments, international bonds, and foreign exchange reserves.  It does not strike me as surprising, and the role of the euro as a payments currency reflects its role in int…
Great Graphic: The Dollar's Role Great Graphic: The Dollar's Role Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 04, 2018 Rating: 5
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Portfolio Re-Balancing and the Dollar

September 20, 2018
Boosted by tax reform, deregulation, and strong earnings growth, US equities have motored ahead, leaving other benchmarks far behind.  As the Great Graphic here shows, most of the other benchmarks are lower on the year.  The S&P 500 (yellow line) is up 8.8% for the year before the new record highs seeing seen now,  while the Dow Jones Stoxx 60…
Portfolio Re-Balancing and the Dollar Portfolio Re-Balancing and the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 20, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Did the CRB Bottom?

September 11, 2018
The CRB index has been trending lower since late May.  It fell nearly 10% to retrace 50% of the rally come June 2017.   This Great Graphic shows the 4 1/2 month trendline.  It had been violated in late August but fell back under it at the end of last week.  
On Monday, it gapped higher, above the trendline.  Today it filled the gap and rallied to n…
Great Graphic: Did the CRB Bottom? Great Graphic: Did the CRB Bottom? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 11, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Is that a Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Euro?

September 06, 2018
The euro recorded the low for the year so far on August 15 near $1.13. We had been anticipating a corrective phase for a couple days before the low was recorded.  Recall that the previous Friday, August 10, all the major currencies, but the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar were beyond their Bollinger Bands. 
The euro recovered toward $1.1735 on Aug…
Great Graphic: Is that a Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Euro? Great Graphic: Is that a Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Euro? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 06, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders Top in Dollar Index

August 21, 2018
This Great Graphic depicts what appears to be a head and shoulders top in the hourly bar chart of the Dollar Index.  The neckline is found near 96.00 and rotating the pattern along it produces a measuring objective near 95.00.  
The bearish pattern was formed in the last few days, and the Dollar Index was resting near the neckline before Trump'…
Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders Top in Dollar Index Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders Top in Dollar Index Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Crude Approaches Year-Old Trend Line

August 15, 2018
Crude oil has been climbing a trendline for the past year.  This Great Graphic depicts this trend on a weekly bar chart.  Depending exactly the line is drawn, it comes in now near $65 a barrel.  The technical indicators are consistent with further losses.  
Oil is off for a third day, alongside other industrial commodities, including copper.  In ad…
Great Graphic: Crude Approaches Year-Old Trend Line Great Graphic: Crude Approaches Year-Old Trend Line Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline

August 14, 2018
This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the dollar-yen exchange rate.  It shows a three-year downtrend line (white line).  The US dollar had popped above it last month, but this proved premature and has not closed about it for a month.  The trendline is found near JPY111.55 now.

 Connecting the 2016 dollar lows and the low from late March this y…
Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 14, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders Top in Euro

August 13, 2018
The euro appears to have carved out head and shoulders top.  As this Great Graphic depicts, the euro was sold through the neckline at the end of last week and is 1% below it today.  It is not unusual for the neckline to be retested.  It is found near $1.15.  It also dovetails with our near-term caution given that the euro is likely to close below …
Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders Top in Euro Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders Top in Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: USD Pushes Below CAD1.30

July 30, 2018
For the first time since mid-June, the US dollar has traded below CAD1.30.  The greenback is weaker against all the major currencies.  However, for the most part, it is still in well-worn ranges, which makes the breakdown against the Canadian dollar even more notable.  It is not clear that today's break will be sustained.  Indeed, we lean agai…
Great Graphic: USD Pushes Below CAD1.30 Great Graphic: USD Pushes Below CAD1.30 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US 2-year Premium Grows and Outlook for G3 Central Banks

July 25, 2018
A cry was heard last week when President Trump expressed displeasure with the Fed's rate hikes.  Some, like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, claimed that this was another step toward becoming a "banana republic."  Jeffrey Sachs, another noted economist, claimed that "American democracy is probably one more war away fr…
Great Graphic: US 2-year Premium Grows and Outlook for G3 Central Banks Great Graphic: US 2-year Premium Grows and Outlook for G3 Central Banks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Is the Euro's Consolidation a Base?

July 24, 2018
Speculators in the futures market are still net long the euro.  They have not been net short since May 2017.  In the spot market, the euro approached $1.15 in late-May and again in mid-June.  Last week's it dipped below $1.16 for the first time in July and Trump's criticism of Fed policy saw it recover.  Yesterday it reached $1.1750 before…
Great Graphic: Is the Euro's Consolidation a Base? Great Graphic: Is the Euro's Consolidation a Base? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Fed Raising Rates, but Yields Still Negative

July 17, 2018
The yield on the 3-month US Treasury bill is pushing above 2% today for the first time since 2008. The yield had briefly dipped below zero as recently as late 2015. 
Although today's yield seems high, this Great Graphic shows the nominal generic three-month yield going back to 1990.  Then the three-month bill yielded 8%.  The peak in the last c…
Great Graphic: Fed Raising Rates, but Yields Still Negative Great Graphic: Fed Raising Rates, but Yields Still Negative Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 17, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Two-year Rate Differentials

July 16, 2018
Given that some of the retail sales that were expected in June were actually booked in May is unlikely to lead to a large revision of expectations for Q2 US GDP, the first estimate of which is due in 11 days.  Before the data, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projects the world's biggest economy expanded at an annualized pace of 3.9% in Q2.  If tr…
Great Graphic: Two-year Rate Differentials Great Graphic: Two-year Rate Differentials Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 16, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Two Stories for Two Trend Lines

July 12, 2018
The Dollar Index made a marginal new high for the year at the end of June a touch below 95.55.  It fell through the start of this week when it reached nearly 93.70.   With the earlier gains, the Dollar Index briefly traded above the 61.8% retracement of the pullback  (~94.85).      A move now below 94.20 would be disappointing.
The Dollar Index is …
Great Graphic: Two Stories for Two Trend Lines Great Graphic: Two Stories for Two Trend Lines Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 12, 2018 Rating: 5
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