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How Long is Transitory?

June 19, 2021
The Bank of England meeting on June 24th finishes this round of major central bank meetings.  At its last meeting, Bailey & Co reduced the weekly bond-buying.  The extension of social restrictions well into July provides added reason to be cautious, though economic activity is accelerating and consumer prices are rising faster than the medium-…
How Long is Transitory? How Long is Transitory?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 19, 2021 Rating: 5
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Macro: Inflation and Policy

August 22, 2020
August is winding down. The market-moving data is passed.  Most of the high-income countries, with the notable exception of the UK, reported disappointing economic data in recent days. US data was decidedly mixed. On one hand, August manufacturing surveys from the NY and Philadelphia Fed showed a cooling off of activity, there was an unexpected in…
Macro: Inflation and Policy Macro: Inflation and Policy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 22, 2020 Rating: 5
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Corrective Forces Still Seem in Control Ahead of the FOMC Outcome

June 10, 2020
Overview:  The pullback ins US shares yesterday has not derailed the global advance.  Japanese and Chinese markets were mixed, the Hang Seng slipped, and Indonesia was hit with profit-taking, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain.  It has fallen once past two and a half weeks.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened higher but is falling f…
Corrective Forces Still Seem in Control Ahead of the FOMC Outcome Corrective Forces Still Seem in Control Ahead of the FOMC Outcome Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 10, 2020 Rating: 5
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New Month, New Trends?

May 03, 2020
The dollar fell against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies last week. The Dollar Index fell by 1.3%, the biggest loss since the last week of March, and posted its lowest close in nearly three weeks ahead of the weekend. There seemed to be a change in the market after key equity benchmarks, like the MSCI ACWI Index …
New Month, New Trends? New Month, New Trends? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 03, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Rubber Band Snaps Back: Dollar Correction Begun

February 23, 2020
An exogenous shock disrupts relationships and patterns.  It may be a useful reminder the correlation does not mean 100% co-movement.  The strongest currency in the world last week was the Swiss franc, a safe-haven that rose by almost 0.5%.  The weakest major currency, and third weakest overall, was the Japanese yen, also a leading safe-haven.  The…
The Rubber Band Snaps Back: Dollar Correction Begun The Rubber Band Snaps Back: Dollar Correction Begun Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 23, 2020 Rating: 5
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Greenback Set to Close the Month on Firm Note

January 26, 2020
((I am in California for the next two days and the time zone will interrupt the regular schedule of the commentary. Apologies for the disruption.)


The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week for which the new SARS-like virus injected fresh volatility into the capital markets.  There were two exceptions.  The first is the Japan…
Greenback Set to Close the Month on Firm Note Greenback Set to Close the Month on Firm Note Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 26, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Charts: China Allows CNY to Rise Against the Dollar as the Greenback Advances Against Almost Everyone Else The Charts: China Allows CNY to Rise Against the Dollar as the Greenback Advances Against Almost Everyone Else Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 19, 2020 Rating: 5
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Technicals: The Underlying Signal

January 12, 2020
The heightened geopolitical risks and then the unwind drove the price action in the capital markets last week, the first full week of the new year.  These are the kind of markets that whipsaw even the most experienced and nimble among us.  We review the recent price action and technical condition of some of the major currencies and other instrumen…
Technicals: The Underlying Signal Technicals:  The Underlying Signal Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 12, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Charts: Corrective Pressures are Building

January 05, 2020
What was a good week for risk assets, albeit in thin holiday markets soured ahead of the week as geopolitical fears escalated between the US and Iran.  Also, North Korea's Kim Jong Un was particularly provocative, and Turkish troops will enter Libya, clearly as US President Trump said, "complicating the situation." The markets freque…
The Charts: Corrective Pressures are Building The Charts: Corrective Pressures are Building Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2020 Rating: 5
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