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Darkest Before Dawn

January 16, 2021
The upcoming economic news is likely to be dreadful, and if it is not dreadful, it will be mostly ignored. This includes the release of the preliminary January PMI figures at the end of the week. Japan is extending its national emergency to another five prefectures, which collectively account for over half of the nation's GDP.  Germany's M…
Darkest Before Dawn Darkest Before Dawn Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 16, 2021 Rating: 5
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The Risks of Pro-Cyclical Policy

February 22, 2018
The idea that monetary and fiscal policy can and ought to be used to ameliorate the business cycle, to avoid the kind of boom/busts that lead to social instability and radical ideologies is a rather modern notion, and it remains somewhat controversial.   Many now see it as hubris that policymakers can tame the business cycle.   However, for those …
The Risks of Pro-Cyclical Policy The Risks of Pro-Cyclical Policy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 22, 2018 Rating: 5
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Brief Thoughts on the Euro

October 10, 2017
The euro peaked a month ago near $1.2090.  It recorded a low near $1.1670 after the weather-skewed US jobs data seen at the end of last week.  The euro recovered from the weekend and set new session highs late US dealings.  That reversal pattern marks the end of the month-long decline. 
There has been follow-through euro buying this week, and the e…
Brief Thoughts on the Euro Brief Thoughts on the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 10, 2017 Rating: 5
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It is Friday and the Dollar is Firmer Again

September 23, 2016
As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness.Ifyou see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged.  If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged. 
Today has the making of the sixth consecutive Friday that the dollar gains against the euro …
It is Friday and the Dollar is Firmer Again It is Friday and the Dollar is Firmer Again Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 23, 2016 Rating: 5
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