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Another Big Week Ahead

May 01, 2021
Now that the first estimates of Q1 growth in the US, China, and the EMU, which account for around 70% of the world's economy, have been reported, March's economic data will lose some of its gravitas. Indeed, the April PMIs and some other survey data, including business and investor confidence, and a series of regional Fed's manufacturi…
Another Big Week Ahead Another Big Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 01, 2021 Rating: 5
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Now What?

November 07, 2020
The dollar fell hard last week.  After several failed attempts, it broke below JPY104 for the first time in eight months.  Despite Beijing's ostensible efforts to moderate the yuan's upside pressure through various administrative policy adjustments, it reached new two-year highs.  The Mexican peso, the second most actively traded emerging …
Now What? Now What? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2020 Rating: 5
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A Pause that Refreshens?

November 06, 2020
Overview:  Investors have piled into risk assets this week, seemingly undeterred by the US elections' lack of a clear outcome.  The coronavirus is still surging, and a new complication has emerged.  A mutation of the virus, originating in minks (Denmark), could pose a challenge in developing a vaccine.  MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fif…
A Pause that Refreshens? A Pause that Refreshens? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2020 Rating: 5
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Yellow Lights are Flashing

September 15, 2016
(Two week business trip is winding down, leaving London tomorrow and will be in Canada for the first couple days of next week, then back to NY.  Sporadic posts to continue. Thanks for your patience)
Yellow lights are flashing. Bonds remain heavy despite a weak spate of data that would seem to remove nearly any chance that Fed will hike rates next w…
Yellow Lights are Flashing Yellow Lights are Flashing Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 15, 2016 Rating: 5
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Is Marina the New Modi?

August 19, 2014
(from my colleague Ilan Solot)
We think Marina Silva’s electoral campaign will keep much of the momentum shown in the latest polls, and with good reason. While not a done deal, her confirmation as the PSB’s candidate for presidency tomorrow is almost certain. Not only do we think she has a very high chance of winning the elections – say, greater th…
Is Marina the New Modi? Is Marina the New Modi? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 19, 2014 Rating: 5
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Electoral Reform: Italy's Soap Opera Takes New Turn

January 15, 2014
Italy finds itself in a proverbial catch-22.  Its electoral system has been gutted by the Constitutional Court, but it needs an election to sort out the changes that have taken place.  These changes have included the split in the center-right, the formal ejection of Berlusconi from the Senate, and a new head of the center-left.  
The Constitutional…
Electoral Reform: Italy's Soap Opera Takes New Turn Electoral Reform:  Italy's Soap Opera Takes New Turn Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 15, 2014 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Mixed to Start the Week

December 09, 2013
The diverging performance of the US dollar is evident today.  Its weakness is concentrated against the euro and sterling.  It is firm against the dollar bloc and yen.  It is mixed against the emerging market currencies. 

US Treasuries are steady after seemingly counter-intuitively firming a bit after the stronger than expected jobs data before the…
US Dollar Mixed to Start the Week US Dollar Mixed to Start the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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A Few Thoughts on the EU Recommendations

May 29, 2013
As widely tipped, the EU is recommending giving several countries more time to reach the budget deficit targets.   We have long argued that moving the goal posts was and remains the most likely course. 
EC President Barroso insisted that this is not a retreat from the austerity, but rather "because of the good progress made, we now have the …
A Few Thoughts on the EU Recommendations A Few Thoughts on the EU Recommendations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Italy: Economy Rotting While Focus on Elections

January 18, 2013
The machinations of Italian politics, with the election next month, is overshadowing the underlying rot of the Italian economy.  Two developments today should be seen as a warning sign by investors. 
First, November industrial orders, understood to be a leading indicator, fell 0.5%.  This follows the 1% drop in November industrial output, reporte…
Italy: Economy Rotting While Focus on Elections Italy:  Economy Rotting While Focus on Elections Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 18, 2013 Rating: 5
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