Results for Eastern Europe
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China Action on Commodities and Crypto Featured

May 24, 2021
Overview: The US dollar is firmer in the European morning after starting out with a softer bias in Asia Pacific turnover.  The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Swiss franc are heavy, but ranges are narrow, and consolidation seems to be the flavor of the day.  Central and Eastern European currencies are faring best among emerging markets, …
China Action on Commodities and Crypto Featured China Action on Commodities and Crypto Featured Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 24, 2021 Rating: 5
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EM FX and Equities - Where Do We Stand Now?

August 28, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

We think it would be a good idea to again take a step back to see how EM FX and equities have performed after the recent chaotic price action. After selling off after Bernanke’s tapering talk starting May 22, EM FX then bottomed in late June/early July before staging a modest corrective recovery as…
EM FX and Equities - Where Do We Stand Now? EM FX and Equities - Where Do We Stand Now? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market FX and Equities--Where do We Stand?

July 19, 2013
(from Dr. Win Thin)
We think it would be a good idea to take a step back to see how EM FX and equities have performed during this recent bounce. Many EM currencies peaked against the dollar and the euro in early May, but then gave up ground, especially after Bernanke’s tapering talk starting May 22. EM FX then bottomed in late June/early July, …
Emerging Market FX and Equities--Where do We Stand? Emerging Market FX and Equities--Where do We Stand? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 19, 2013 Rating: 5
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EU Tweaks Rules for Rating Agencies

June 21, 2013
Yesterday the EU announced new rules of the conduct of rating agencies in terms of their sovereign assessments. The rules appear aimed at making the changes of ratings less disruptive for the both issuers and investors, but does not appear to impact the substance of decisions or curtail their use.
Starting at the end of this year, the rating a…
EU Tweaks Rules for Rating Agencies EU Tweaks Rules for Rating Agencies Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Grokking Latvia

June 05, 2013
The EU and the ECB formally recommended that the euro area finance ministers approve Latvia to join the monetary union on January 1. They will do so next month. The small Baltic country will become the 18th member of EMU, a year after Estonia. Barring an unexpected setback, Lithuania will become the 19th member at the start of 2015.   Perhaps …
Grokking Latvia Grokking Latvia Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 05, 2013 Rating: 5
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Capital Market Drivers

June 03, 2013
There have been two overarching forces that have driven the global capital markets in recent weeks. Within the context of substantial positions established on the basis of both US and Japanese unorthodox easing, the markets have responded dramatically to speculation of near-term Fed tapering and concerns that BOJ is caught in a contradiction; a r…
Capital Market Drivers Capital Market Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed?

May 16, 2013
(From my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

This is what has changed in the EM space, in our view: 
1) The Bank of Israel surprised with a 25 bp rate cut Monday, an intra-meeting move
2) EUR/CZK traded above 26 for the first time since November 2011, as Q1 GDP came in much worse than expected at -1.9% y/y vs. -1.7% y/y in Q4
3) On the other hand, EUR/HUF mo…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed? Emerging Markets: What Has Changed? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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Three Suprises before BOE and ECB

April 04, 2013
There have been three surprises for the market to digest and this is ahead of the Bank of England and European Central Bank Meetings. The biggest surprise is the BOJ, which triggered a dramatic reversal in the yen and Japanese stocks and bonds. Australia began the day by surprising the market with strong retail sales and building approval data, …
Three Suprises before BOE and ECB Three Suprises before BOE and ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 04, 2013 Rating: 5
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Financial Transaction Tax: Sand in the Wheels?

February 14, 2013
The European Commission formally endorsed the financial transaction tax agreed to by eleven of the 27 members.  The tax will be set at 0.1% for stocks and bonds and 0.01% for derivatives.  The tax will go into effect at the start of 2014, by which time the participating countries will give it formal approval. 
There seems to be two purposes of th…
Financial Transaction Tax: Sand in the Wheels? Financial Transaction Tax: Sand in the Wheels? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 14, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Tax Code as Tool in Class Warfare

July 25, 2012
Here are is a Great Graphic that captured our attention.  The first is from the Citizens for Tax Justice courtesy of NPR.  It shows that the return to labor (wages and other earned income) is taxed at a considerably higher rate than the returns to capital (capital gains).  Moreover that gap has widened over the past 20+ years.  
The second chart …
Great Graphic: Tax Code as Tool in Class Warfare Great Graphic: Tax Code as Tool in Class Warfare Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currencies Continue To Consolidate

July 03, 2012
The holiday abbreviated US equity and bond session today will likely ensure that the major currencies continue to trade in narrow ranges.  With the BOE/ECB meeting outcomes Thursday and the US employment data Friday, the price action could very well resemble a coiling spring, with a big move to follow this consolidative phase.  
There have been a…
Currencies Continue To Consolidate Currencies Continue To Consolidate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Marginalization of Western Europe?

January 19, 2012
Sentiment toward the euro appears as negative as it has been since the joint intervention a little more than eleven years ago, even if the exchange rate is considerably higher. The net speculative position at the IMM is record short the euro.

US money markets have dramatically cut their exposure to European bank paper. This has been widely reporte…
Marginalization of Western Europe? Marginalization of Western Europe? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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European Bond Supply and Greece's Trojan Horse

January 06, 2012
European sovereigns return to the capital markets more substantially next week as 2012 issuance gets under way. Between bills and bonds, around 35-40 bln euros will be sold. Maturing issues and coupon payments will cover about three-quarters of the bond issuance.
The market's focus is on the Spanish and Italian bond offerings in the second half…
European Bond Supply and Greece's Trojan Horse European Bond Supply and Greece's Trojan Horse Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Refunding Fears Take Toll on Europe

January 05, 2012
One of the key factors behind the poor sentiment toward the euro, which was pressed to new 13 month lows in Europe today, is the challenge posed by the sovereign and bank refunding needed this year, while rating downgrades loom around the corner.  Euro zone sovereigns have an estimated 800 bln euros of debt servicing and spending to fund this year…
Refunding Fears Take Toll on Europe Refunding Fears Take Toll on Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Comes Back Bid

January 04, 2012
The US dollar has come back bid today after yesterday's rather shallow correction.  Euro sellers re-emerged as the single currency approached its 20-day moving average for the first time in a couple of weeks.  Although the PMIs are a bit better, it does not change the underlying economic picture.  Nor does it impact the real concern about the …
Dollar Comes Back Bid Dollar Comes Back Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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A Quiet Putsch in Hungary?

January 01, 2012
A putsch, as any dictionary will tell you, refers to the violent overthrow of a government.  Hungary has not been subject to that kind of action per se, but rather a more insidious grab for power.  Its new constitution goes into effect today, and while perfectly legal, marks the end of Hungary's flirtation with liberalism (meant in the classic…
A Quiet Putsch in Hungary? A Quiet Putsch in Hungary? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Finishing Year Mixed, Second Annual Gain Against Euro

December 30, 2011
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as activity winds down. The main price action to note is that the euro fell through the JPY100 level for the first time since mid-2001. For the most part, the dollar is confined to yesterday's ranges against the major currencies.
Emerging market currencies are finishing the year in mixed fashion as well. Interve…
Dollar Finishing Year Mixed, Second Annual Gain Against Euro Dollar Finishing Year Mixed, Second Annual Gain Against Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 30, 2011 Rating: 5
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March to Folly: Underestimating Germany and the ECB

December 04, 2011
The House of Finance is accustomed to a cacophony of opinions and voices. Rarely out of the free market place of ideas has such a strong consensus emerged: Germany and the ECB must capitulate.
The ECB must act as a backstop and support the bond markets ofthe heavily indebted euro zone members. Germany must relent and permit the issuance of Eurobon…
March to Folly: Underestimating Germany and the ECB March to Folly: Underestimating Germany and the ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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ECB and Fed Action: Forget About It

November 16, 2011
Some press reports are linking the recovery in the euro to comments from Boston's Fed Rosengren who seemed to suggest that an intensification of the debt crisis could prompt a joint response by both the Federal Reserve and the ECB.   Immediately people thought about intervention and/or coordinated easing. Don't hold your breath for it. 
Ro…
ECB and Fed Action: Forget About It ECB and Fed Action: Forget About It Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Spain: Another Pain

November 16, 2011
Pressure is mounting on Spain. The 10-year yield today is essentially back to where it was when the ECB broadened its sovereign bond purchase scheme to include Spanish and Italian bonds. On Oct 27, the 10-year yield was near 5.33%. Today it is 100 bp higher. This is not a very conducive environment for tomorrow's new benchmark offering (up to …
Spain: Another Pain Spain: Another Pain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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