Results for ESM
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German Court Decision and Data Extend Risk-On Rally

September 12, 2012
The German Constitutional Court cleared the remaining hurdle to the ESM and this has encouraged a further extension of the risk-on rally.  The US dollar is bearing the brunt of the move ahead of the other key event of the week, the conclusion tomorrow of the FOMC meeting, where the perceptions of the risk of QE are running high.  
The market appear…
German Court Decision and Data Extend Risk-On Rally German Court Decision and Data Extend Risk-On Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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New Twists in the Plot (German Court and Greece)

September 10, 2012
There have been two developments that are serving to keep the euro consolidating in the North American morning. The first has to do with the Germany Constitutional Court and the second involves Greece.
A new claim was brought to the German Constitutional court by a CSU member of parliament. Peter Gauweiler, a noted euro sceptic, has filed a ch…
New Twists in the Plot (German Court and Greece) New Twists in the Plot (German Court and Greece) Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Heavy While Waiting for Bernanke

August 31, 2012
The US dollar is trading softly in the lead up to Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole.  The price action is still one of position adjusting.  While the euro and Swiss franc have made new multi-week highs against the dollar, sterling ad the Australian and Canadian dollars have moved through yesterday's highs only in early North …
Dollar Heavy While Waiting for Bernanke Dollar Heavy While Waiting for Bernanke Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Draghi: Call Me Maybe

August 27, 2012
ECB President Draghi appears to have gotten as much as he can get with his word play.  He has been fairly successful.  The pressures that were threatening Europe via Spain and Italy in late July were reduced and summer holidays were still enjoyed by his well placed suggestive comments.  
Spanish 2-year yields fell from over 7% before Draghi to ab…
Draghi: Call Me Maybe Draghi:  Call Me Maybe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe?

August 16, 2012
There is one main feature of the euro zone economic data next week. Yet the flash PMI readings are unlikely to be sufficiently different from the July readings to prompt a reassessment of the trajectory of the regional economy. More important than the economic data will be the political maneuverings.

There will be a flurry of meetings…
Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe? Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Is OSI Next ?

August 07, 2012
The agreement struck earlier this year projects that Greece's debt to GDP ratio will near 120% in 2020. At the time, officials, including at the IMF, claimed this was meant the definition of sustainable. Investors were rightly skeptical. A Dow Jones report says the IMF is re-considering its position and now is interested in redefining s…
Is OSI Next ? Is OSI Next ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Four Observations to Start the Week

August 06, 2012
The US dollar begins the week consolidating last week’s losses after modest follow through selling was seen in Asia.     Soft UK house prices, anticipation of a dovish BOE quarterly inflation report midweek, and some cross rate selling has seen sterling under perform.   The other major currencies are little changed and the greenback is slightly fi…
Four Observations to Start the Week Four Observations to Start the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Mr Market Exaggerates

August 05, 2012
At first the ECB's NATO strategy--No Action Talk Only--produced a sharp sell-off of the euro and Spanish and Italian bonds, especially the long end.  On second thought, the half glass was really half full and there was a dramatic rally of the euro and Spanish and Italian bonds.  The idea was the the ECB was preparing to support the bond marke…
Great Graphic: Mr Market Exaggerates Great Graphic:  Mr Market Exaggerates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Broken Transmission

August 01, 2012
The US dollar is little changed against the major currencies, but as was the case yesterday, it is sporting a softer profile against the dollar-bloc.  Despite a continued push back from Germany, the market seems to favor Draghi and Spanish and Italian bonds markets continue to trade firmly and with yield curves steepening as the 2-year yields fall…
The Broken Transmission The Broken Transmission Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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Europe: Urgent or Not?

July 30, 2012
The ECB's Draghi expressed an appreciation for the urgency facing the euro area, but he seems more isolated than he did last week when Merkel and Hollande reiterated their willingness to do what was necessary.
Even though the euro fell more than a 1.5 cents from its pre-weekend high just below $1.24, Spanish bond yields have continued to retrea…
Europe: Urgent or Not? Europe:  Urgent or Not? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currencies Consolidate Awaiting Key Events

July 30, 2012
The US dollar is consolidating the losses suffered at the end of last week. It remains largely confined to the ranges seen before the weekend. The Swedish krona is the best performer following the better than expected Q2 GDP (1.4% vs 0.3% consensus).  The Australian dollar is the other exception.  Speculation of a rate cut next week have been sc…
Currencies Consolidate Awaiting Key Events Currencies Consolidate Awaiting Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Draghi Means Dragon

July 26, 2012
As European leaders take leave for their summer holiday's, ECB President Draghi has again stepped into the vacuum and has helped spark a recovery in the global capital markets.  Not only has the euro rallied to the highest level in a week, but Spanish and Italian yields have fallen sharply and the short-end has fallen more than the long-end.  

Draghi Means Dragon Draghi Means Dragon Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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What Nowotny Did Not Say

July 25, 2012
There seems to be some confusion in the markets.  Many think that the head of the Austrian central bank and ECB member Nowotny raised the likelihood that the ESM could get a banking license.  This would allow it to borrow from the ECB to supplement its funds and make for a practically unlimited war chest. 

It would help address concerns that the c…
What Nowotny Did Not Say What Nowotny Did Not Say Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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