Results for EFSF
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Currencies Consolidate Awaiting Key Events

July 30, 2012
The US dollar is consolidating the losses suffered at the end of last week. It remains largely confined to the ranges seen before the weekend. The Swedish krona is the best performer following the better than expected Q2 GDP (1.4% vs 0.3% consensus).  The Australian dollar is the other exception.  Speculation of a rate cut next week have been sc…
Currencies Consolidate Awaiting Key Events Currencies Consolidate Awaiting Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Draghi Means Dragon

July 26, 2012
As European leaders take leave for their summer holiday's, ECB President Draghi has again stepped into the vacuum and has helped spark a recovery in the global capital markets.  Not only has the euro rallied to the highest level in a week, but Spanish and Italian yields have fallen sharply and the short-end has fallen more than the long-end.  

Draghi Means Dragon Draghi Means Dragon Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX Positioning and In-Depth Outlook

July 21, 2012
In the great ugly contest that is the foreign exchange market, a series of disappointingly poor US economic data had threatened to give the dubious honor to the dollar.  The euro had reached a 7-day high on July 19,  just below the key level we identified near $1.2330.   Sterling traded near its best level in a month, near $1.5740.   For its part…
FX Positioning and In-Depth Outlook FX Positioning and In-Depth Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Conceptualizing Europe

July 19, 2012
The US dollar is  a bit heavier against most foreign currencies as risk appetites across the board appear to have strengthened.  Global equities are mostly higher.  Core bond markets are also a touch heavier.  Spanish and Italian 10-year yields were flirting with the 7% and 6% levels but have since pulled back (however note that Spain's 2-yea…
Conceptualizing Europe Conceptualizing Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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Euro Drifts Lower, Yen Higher; Aussie Spanked

July 12, 2012
The US dollar is broadly higher today.  The drivers continue to be the same.  European debt crisis continues to weigh on sentiment and, separately, world growth worries continue to elicit policy responses, though the lack of stronger support for QE in the FOMC minutes may have also bolstered the dollar bulls.  
Brazil delivered the expected 50 bp…
Euro Drifts Lower, Yen Higher; Aussie Spanked Euro Drifts Lower, Yen Higher; Aussie Spanked Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Spain and the New Model

July 11, 2012
European officials are devising a new approach to the debt crisis.  The model used for Greece, which was the prototype for Ireland and Portugal, is being replaced by a new approach.  It is being hammered out in Spain.  It is evolutionary in the sense that it is responding to the changing environment and conditions, while at the same time the new a…
Spain and the New Model Spain and the New Model Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Muted Turnaround Tuesday

July 10, 2012
The US dollar is sporting a slight softer tone, but within the consolidative ranges seen in recent days.  The dollar was better bid in Asia but softened in Europe following better than expected industrial production figures from the UK, Italy, and Sweden, leaving France as the exception with a disappointing report.  
Similarly, Asian equities were…
Muted Turnaround Tuesday Muted Turnaround Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Draghi Calls for Bold Action

July 09, 2012
ECB President Draghi calls for bold action, but it is not clear exactly what he means. He does not mean a resumption of the sovereign bond purchase scheme. He does not mean granting the ESM a banking license. He does not mean boosting the funds available to the ESM. Bold action apparently does not mean accepting any more (net basis) state guarant…
Draghi Calls for Bold Action Draghi Calls for Bold Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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German Constitutional Court and the Euro

July 09, 2012
The German Constitutional Court is expected to rule Tuesday July 10 on the request for a temporary injunction against the ESM and the fiscal pact on grounds that it transfers an unconstitutional amount of power to European institutions.  German press reports suggest that it is unusual for the Court to entertain requests for a temporary injunction…
German Constitutional Court and the Euro German Constitutional Court and the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Spain: Deal in the Making?

July 09, 2012
Spain is on the bubble. The 10-year yield is pushing through 7% and 2-year yield is flirting with 5%. As we noted earlier, the entire curve and CDS pricing is above Ireland's. The Spanish crisis is really a combination of three different debt issues: sovereign, banks and regions.
The Eurogroup of finance ministers…
Spain: Deal in the Making? Spain:  Deal in the Making? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Calm before the Storm?

July 09, 2012
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major foreign currencies today as a consolidative tone emerges pending fresh developments. The euro made a marginal 2-year low in early Asia, but narrow ranges have prevailed and the euro has traded in a little more than a quarter cent range in Europe, mostly below $1.23. The dollar has been i…
Calm before the Storm? Calm before the Storm? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Two Drivers

July 05, 2012
There are two main concerns which appear to be driving the price action.  First, there is heightened anxiety about the global economic slowdown.  This is evident in the fact that easing of monetary policy by four countries (China, the UK, the ECB and Denmark) failed to breathe fresh life into the moribund animal spirits.  
Second, is that the Europ…
The Two Drivers The Two Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events

July 05, 2012
The US dollar is trading near its best levels for the week against the euro, Swiss franc and sterling ahead of ECB and BOE meetings, and US ADP and service ISM.  New market moving developments are scarce and the market has largely traded within the ranges set at the end of last week.  The Australian and Canadian dollars have seen some follow thro…
Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Higgs Boson and FX: What Matters

July 04, 2012
The scientists at CERN's atom smasher have reported discovering a new particle. The scientists themselves avoid calling it the "God Particle", though it does not stop the media. Essentially, this particle, called Higgs Boson, is believed to create an invisible field that gives mass to matter. 
Prior to the Big Bang, it is thought …
Higgs Boson and FX: What Matters Higgs Boson and FX: What Matters Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Word of the Day: Sovereignty

June 28, 2012
Here is an under-appreciated irony:  One of the underlying themes of the European summit is the erosion of sovereignty for the sake of integration.  In the US today, the Supreme Court decision on President Obama's national health care program, reinforces if not strengthens the power of the sovereign (in this case, to tax).  The US state may ha…
Word of the Day: Sovereignty Word of the Day:  Sovereignty Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Why Not To Expect SMP or LTRO from ECB Next Week

June 26, 2012
The ECB meets next Thursday, July 5. Although a few members wanted to cut rates earlier this month, they did not represent a majority. Expectations are running high for some action next week. The ECB did announce last week a relaxation of collateral standards and a liberalization of criteria. We have suggested this should be understood as ju…
Why Not To Expect SMP or LTRO from ECB Next Week Why Not To Expect SMP or LTRO from ECB Next Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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What Not to Expect from the European Meetings Today and Friday

June 21, 2012
The Euro group of finance ministers meet today and tomorrow there is a heads of state meeting for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. These meetings should be understood as preparing and positioning for the EU Summit at the end of next week.
Recent comments have shed light on what is not likely to happen. It is unlikely that there will be an agree…
What Not to Expect from the European Meetings Today and Friday What Not to Expect from the European Meetings Today and Friday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firm, but Mostly Range Bound

June 21, 2012
The US dollar is somewhat firmer, but still largely confined to recent ranges.  Its strength against the yen is an exception.   The greenback neared JPY80 for the first time since May 23.  The dollar's gains against the yen may be partly a  function of the Fed opting for Operation Twist over QE.   The US-Japan 2-year interest rate differentia…
Dollar Firm, but Mostly Range Bound Dollar Firm, but Mostly Range Bound Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Marking Time Ahead FOMC

June 20, 2012
The US dollar is little changed as the foreign exchange market awaits the outcome of the FOMC meeting and further developments in Europe, where a Greek government may be announced.  Most of the major currencies are trading within yesterday's ranges.  Global equity markets are higher.  
Of note the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index gained 1%, despite lo…
Marking Time Ahead FOMC Marking Time Ahead FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Calmer Markets, No Resolution

June 19, 2012
The global capital markets are calmer today, but there has been no resolution of key outstanding issues.  There is still no agreement over the configuration of a new Greek government.  The full extent of Spain's banking needs are still not known and there is speculation that a full-blown assistance package is needed.  Peripheral bond yields a…
Calmer Markets, No Resolution Calmer Markets, No Resolution Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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