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Markets Catch Breath as Politics Trumps Economics

May 15, 2023
Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating last week's gains. The big news has been on the political front. Thailand's opposition parties dealt the military-led government a powerful blow. But in Turkey, Erdogan staved off a serious challenge and a run-off later this month looks likely, while his party maintained its parliamentary majori…
Markets Catch Breath as Politics Trumps Economics Markets Catch Breath as Politics Trumps Economics Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 15, 2023 Rating: 5
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Dollar and Rates Soften a Little Ahead of US CPI

February 14, 2023
Overview: The focus is on the US CPI report today, but the price action is anything but intuitive. Although the revisions of the basket and methodological changes reinforce expectations for the largest rise in three months, the US dollar continues to trade heavily after rallying last week. The dollar-bloc currencies are underperforming today. And …
Dollar and Rates Soften a Little Ahead of US CPI Dollar and Rates Soften a Little Ahead of US CPI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 14, 2023 Rating: 5
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Calmer Capital Markets...for the Moment

September 15, 2022
Overview:  The capital markets are quiet today. Equity markets and bond yields have a slight upside bias, while the dollar is little changed. Despite reports that the lockdown in Chengdu is easing, Chinese equities underperformed in the Asia Pacific region. Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia eked out modest gains. After sliding around 2.4% ov…
Calmer Capital Markets...for the Moment Calmer Capital Markets...for the Moment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 15, 2022 Rating: 5
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Will the Dollar Recover After CPI?

September 13, 2022
Overview: The US dollar remains offered ahead of today’s CPI report. Most European currencies are outperforming the dollar bloc, and the greenback is holding inside yesterday’s range against the yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, as well. China’s markets re-opened from the long-holiday weekend and the yuan is a touch softer. After th…
Will the Dollar Recover After CPI? Will the Dollar Recover After CPI? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 13, 2022 Rating: 5
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Four No's

June 02, 2020
Sometimes it is easier to have a sense of what will not happen, rather than a view of what will happen. 
No Negative Rates in the US:  Nearly every Federal Reserve official has argued against the deployment of negative interest rates in the US.  It is also not completely clear that the same Congressional authorization to allow the Fed to pay intere…
Four No's Four No's Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2020 Rating: 5
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Yields Extend Decline

July 03, 2019
Overview: Interest rates are lurching lower.  The US 10-year yield is at new two-year lows, but the driver is European bonds where peripheral yields are 6-7 bp lower,  though Italy's benchmark is off 12 bp, while core yields are down 2-3 bp to new record lows.  The German benchmark is almost minus 40 bp, while the Swiss 10-year is beyond minus…
Yields Extend Decline Yields Extend Decline Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2019 Rating: 5
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Europe's Sovereign Bond-Backed Securities

May 24, 2018
It has been discussed for several weeks, and today the European Commission unveiled a proposal for a new asset-backed security.  The backing would be sovereign bonds weighted by the size of the economy.  
This may sound like mutualization of risk, but it is no such thing.  These new securities are not Eurobonds. The EC is calling on the private sec…
Europe's Sovereign Bond-Backed Securities Europe's Sovereign Bond-Backed Securities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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Why You Should Understand What is Happening with Italian Banks

July 12, 2016
The FTSE Italian bank index was down nearly 40% this year through the day of the UK referendum. It fell another 33% from the results of the referendum to the middle of last week. 
In recent days, investors appear to have become more optimistic that the political will from the EU and Italy is sufficient to avert a full-fledged banking crisis. The FT…
Why You Should Understand What is Happening with Italian Banks Why You Should Understand What is Happening with Italian Banks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 12, 2016 Rating: 5
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The EU and Turkey: Unvarnished Truth and Stuffing

June 23, 2016
In the vitriolic debate over the UK's membership of the EU, Turkey's potential membership became one of the talking points.  Prime Minister Cameron, who has advocated Turkey's eventual membership, is likely correct in his assessment that this that if it does take place, it won't be anytime soon.   
Turkey first applied forEU members…
The EU and Turkey: Unvarnished Truth and Stuffing The EU and Turkey: Unvarnished Truth and Stuffing Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 23, 2016 Rating: 5
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