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Dutch Politics Recapitulate Euro Area Debate

September 19, 2012
Dutch politicians continue to try to form a government. Since the end of WWII, it has taken the Netherlands about three months on average to form a government following a national election. After the last election in 2010, it took almost 130 days.

In some ways, the debate between the Liberal (41 seats of the 150 seat parliament) and the Labor…
Dutch Politics Recapitulate Euro Area Debate Dutch Politics Recapitulate Euro Area Debate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX Positioning and Technical Outlook: Trend is Your Friend?

September 15, 2012
Nearly every development in recent days has been embraced by the foreign exchange market as a reason to continue to do what it has been doing since late July, and that is to sell the dollar.   

 The German Constitutional Court ruling, allowing the European Stability Mechanism to go forward, which in turn bolsters the ECB's Outright Monetary Tra…
FX Positioning and Technical Outlook: Trend is Your Friend? FX Positioning and Technical Outlook: Trend is Your Friend? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 15, 2012 Rating: 5
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German Court Decision and Data Extend Risk-On Rally

September 12, 2012
The German Constitutional Court cleared the remaining hurdle to the ESM and this has encouraged a further extension of the risk-on rally.  The US dollar is bearing the brunt of the move ahead of the other key event of the week, the conclusion tomorrow of the FOMC meeting, where the perceptions of the risk of QE are running high.  
The market appear…
German Court Decision and Data Extend Risk-On Rally German Court Decision and Data Extend Risk-On Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Eventful Week Begins Slowly

September 10, 2012
The US dollar is consolidating last week's losses in largely uneventful activity.  In fact, consolidation is the general theme in the broader capital markets as well.   Equity markets are narrowly mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific eking out a marginal gain and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 trading with a slight downside bias in the European morning,…
Eventful Week Begins Slowly Eventful Week Begins Slowly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX Positioning and Outlook: No Sign a Turn is at Hand

September 08, 2012
Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions.  This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar.  China is providing new fiscal support.  The ECB announced its new Outright Market Transactions.  The disappointing US em…
FX Positioning and Outlook: No Sign a Turn is at Hand FX Positioning and Outlook: No Sign a Turn is at Hand Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 08, 2012 Rating: 5
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Market Update and Thoughts on the Canadian Dollar

August 17, 2012
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as North American traders return to finish out the week.  The euro and Swiss franc are the strongest majors on the day and week.  Continued recovery in Spanish and Italian bonds and stocks has helped lift the euro.  The rise in core interest rates (15-17 bp this week for US, UK and German benchmark 10-year bonds) …
Market Update and Thoughts on the Canadian Dollar Market Update and Thoughts on the Canadian Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX: Nervous Consolidation: Correction Pending

July 24, 2012
The foreign exchange market remains in a heightened state of anxiety, but the majors are mostly trading within yesterday's ranges.  The short sales bans in Italy and Spain have not eased the pressure on the local bourses or bond markets.  In fact, for the first time in eleven years, the Spanish 5-year yield moved above the 10-year yield.   It …
FX: Nervous Consolidation: Correction Pending FX: Nervous Consolidation: Correction Pending Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Conceptualizing Europe

July 19, 2012
The US dollar is  a bit heavier against most foreign currencies as risk appetites across the board appear to have strengthened.  Global equities are mostly higher.  Core bond markets are also a touch heavier.  Spanish and Italian 10-year yields were flirting with the 7% and 6% levels but have since pulled back (however note that Spain's 2-yea…
Conceptualizing Europe Conceptualizing Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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Sentiment Turning on Germany?

June 14, 2012
It has been a difficult week for Germany.  Instead of attributing the intensification of the crisis to the debtors, some officials and observers, as well as the media, are blaming Germany for not opening its purse more.  Germany, we are told, is isolated, but it is not.  The key division in Europe is creditor and debtor.  For much of its resistanc…
Sentiment Turning on Germany? Sentiment Turning on Germany? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: European PMI Readings

June 01, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic from the Financial Times.  It captures the weakness in the core, as in Germany, France and the Netherlands.  It also underscores the problem Spain faces.  Its PMI was below Greece's.  The prospects for such a weak economy can only make its regional and banking problems more acute.  Ireland is the strongest, but given th…
Great Graphic: European PMI Readings Great Graphic: European PMI Readings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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Memorial Day Update

May 28, 2012
The US dollar is broadly lower in relatively subdued activity. The major development over the weekend that has encouraged some reduction of risk averseness is several polls in Greece that showed the New Democracy pulling ahead of Syriza. Global equity markets are mostly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining about 0.75% and the most …
Memorial Day Update Memorial Day Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Feint and Parry and the Three No's

May 22, 2012
In the diplomatic dance in Europe, investors are rightfully confused what is a feint and negotiating tactic and what is parry or strategic principle. A new French president and changing tone in Europe appears to have re-opened debates that had previously seemed closed. The range of possibilities all of the sudden seems large again--joint bonds,…
Feint and Parry and the Three No's Feint and Parry and the Three No's Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Shifting Agenda and Ideological Rigidities

May 21, 2012
Over the weekend, Germany's I.G. Metall reached an agreement with employers in Baden-Wuerttemberg for a wage increase that will likely set the tone for other regions and industries. The 4.3% pay increase covers the year from May 1. However, the previous contract expired at the end of March, so the new deal really covers 13 months, which puts…
Shifting Agenda and Ideological Rigidities Shifting Agenda and Ideological Rigidities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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S&P Cuts Spain's Rating Two Notches to BBB+

April 26, 2012
S&P cut Spain's sovereign rating by two notches to BBB+ after the NY markets closed. Although Spanish bonds have under-performed this year, with the 10-year yield rising 80 bp, despite the two LTROs and seemingly better appetite for risk, the two notch move caught the short-term market wrong-footed. In thin pre-Asian markets, the dollar…
S&P Cuts Spain's Rating Two Notches to BBB+ S&P Cuts Spain's Rating Two Notches to BBB+ Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Coming Growth Pact in Europe

April 25, 2012
Over the past several weeks, both Spain and Italy have indicated they will not reach the initially projected deficit targets. Nearly all the polls suggest that the (moderate) Socialist Hollande will win the second round of France's presidential contest. Greek national elections, also on May 6, may result in a fragmented parliament, underminin…
Coming Growth Pact in Europe Coming Growth Pact in Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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More Lull than Turn Around Tuesday

April 24, 2012
A more stable tone in the capital markets is evident today.  The "turn around Tuesday" may simply be a short lull before new incentives emerge.  With the European auctions behind us for the session, and a light North American calendar, a consolidative tone may characterize the remainder of today's 24 hour session.
The US dollar is m…
More Lull than Turn Around Tuesday More Lull than Turn Around Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Series of Poor News Lifts Dollar

April 23, 2012
The dollar is broadly higher to start the week.   The string of  developments has encouraged risk-off behavior.  Equity markets are lower.  Core bonds are higher.  The high beta currencies, suchas the freely traded emerging market currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars, the euro, Swedish krona, and of course, the euro itself, are under s…
Series of Poor News Lifts Dollar Series of Poor News Lifts Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead

April 22, 2012
The week ahead will be eventful.  There will be something for everyone.  There is plenty of economic data.  There are a few central bank meetings and there of course will be a heavy dose of politics.
Politics is a good place to begin.  The Dutch government collapsed on Saturday as the Freedom Party withdrew its support for the minority governmen…
The Week Ahead The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dutch Government Collapses

April 21, 2012
Seven weeks of government negotiations in the Netherlands to agree on new austerity measures failed on Saturday suggesting the German-led program for Europe is about to take head of another government and this is on the eve of the first round of the French elections, where polls consistently show the Socialist candidate Hollande poised to win the…
Dutch Government Collapses Dutch Government Collapses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Little Changed

April 19, 2012
The US dollar is mostly little changed against the European currencies as the North American session is about to begin.  Sterling has retained a firm bias after the risk of a new round of official gilt purchases (QE)was reduced.  It is holding above the $1.60 level and initially extended this week's rally off the successful test on $1.58 and …
Dollar Little Changed Dollar Little Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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