Results for Data
Edit

Muted Turnaround Tuesday

March 05, 2013
The stage for Turnaround Tuesday was set yesterday when the euro and sterling held the pre-weekend lows and the Dollar-Index did not extend last week's gains. The US-German 2-year spread, which continues to do a good job tracking the euro, also helped below last week's high and now is trading at its lowest level (smallest US premium since …
Muted Turnaround Tuesday Muted Turnaround Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 05, 2013 Rating: 5
Edit

US Fiscal Cliff Averted, Risk Appetite Increases

January 02, 2013
There seems to a collective sigh of relief.  The full force of the US fiscal cliff that could have dragged the world's largest economy into a recession has been averted, even though the results do not seem particularly satisfactory as the debt ceiling and spending cut decisions have been postponed for several weeks.  
Global equity markets ha…
US Fiscal Cliff Averted, Risk Appetite Increases US Fiscal Cliff Averted, Risk Appetite Increases Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 02, 2013 Rating: 5
Edit

FX Drivers in the Week Ahead

November 26, 2012
The last week of November has begun with a mildly consolidative tone in the foreign exchange market.    The US dollar is trading in relatively narrow ranges around its pre-weekend lows.  Its performance against the yen is the exception.  It has traded on both sides of last Friday's range. A close below Friday's low just above JPY82.00 woul…
FX Drivers in the Week Ahead FX Drivers in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

FX Technical Outlook: Yen and Dollar Weakness Set to Continue

November 24, 2012
Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, the Commitment of Traders report of positioning in the currency futures market has been delayed.  We will review that separately when the data is available next week.  Here we present an overview of our near-term technical outlook.

Last week, we recognized that the US dollar was overstretched and anticipat…
FX Technical Outlook: Yen and Dollar Weakness Set to Continue FX Technical Outlook:   Yen and Dollar Weakness Set to Continue Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 24, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Great Graphic: Data Surprises in the US and Europe

November 15, 2012
This Great Graphic was posted on the Sober Look  blog.   It took it from research from JP Morgan.  It compares the bank's data surprise models for the US and Europe.  It documents what we have experienced.  
US data has generally surprised economists on the upside is early summer.   European data was improving relative to expectations July an…
Great Graphic: Data Surprises in the US and Europe Great Graphic:  Data Surprises in the US and Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 15, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Fade Breakouts ?

October 28, 2012
The US Dollar Index reached its best level in more than six weeks on Friday.  Yet it managed to only close a couple of ticks higher, as if warning short-term participants against ideas that a breakout is at hand.  This also appears to be the message of the yen's  dramatic recovery from four-month lows. 
Caught between what appears to be renewe…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Fade Breakouts ? Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook:  Fade Breakouts ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 28, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Four Points on Hump Day

October 10, 2012
The US dollar narrowly mixed.  It rallied in Asia, extending yesterday's gains against the euro, but has had the gains pared a bit Europe. Immediate resistance for the euro is seen near $1.2880.  A move through there could spark another half cent move.  The real take away though is that the euro is range-bound, with the $1.28 area marking the…
Four Points on Hump Day Four Points on Hump Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 10, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

FX Outlook and Positioning: Getting Tired?

September 22, 2012
The days ahead will help clarify whether the US dollar's somewhat firmer tone last week was simply corrective in nature, before a new leg lower, or the carving out of a bottom of a downtrend that began in June against most of the major currencies and July for the euro.    
The key may not lie with the economic data.  The important steps announ…
FX Outlook and Positioning: Getting Tired? FX Outlook and Positioning:  Getting Tired? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 22, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Great Graphic: Consumer Credit

September 10, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic from Zero Hedge.  It shows the history of the US consumer credit report since 2007.  It tends not to be a market-mover, but the unexpected decline in July has gotten the attention of many as the North American session winds down.  
The Bloomberg consensus was for a $9.2 bln increase.  Instead the Federal Reserve reported a…
Great Graphic: Consumer Credit Great Graphic:  Consumer Credit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Jobs Data Disappoints, Ignore Drop in Unemployment Rate

September 07, 2012
The US employment data is an important disappointment, especially coming on the heels of yesterday's ADP and service ISM reports that had lifted expectations.  The private sector created a net 103k jobs, well below the 143k expected and a down from the lower revised 162k created in July.  A large part of the miss comes from manufacturing wher…
Jobs Data Disappoints, Ignore Drop in Unemployment Rate Jobs Data Disappoints, Ignore Drop in Unemployment Rate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 07, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe?

August 16, 2012
There is one main feature of the euro zone economic data next week. Yet the flash PMI readings are unlikely to be sufficiently different from the July readings to prompt a reassessment of the trajectory of the regional economy. More important than the economic data will be the political maneuverings.

There will be a flurry of meetings…
Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe? Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Great Graphic: Housing Market Recovery in Perspective

August 13, 2012
This Great Graphic from Calculated Risk puts the US housing market recovery in the context of past recoveries.  Two points are clear.  Single family house starts is recovering and it is historically weak.  The July data is slated for release on Thursday, August 16.  
A small decline is expected after the 6.9% increase in June.   June starts of 76…
Great Graphic: Housing Market Recovery in Perspective Great Graphic:  Housing Market Recovery  in Perspective Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Currency Positioning and Outlook

August 11, 2012
Market positioning in the week ending August 7 suggests that speculators in the futures market generally agree with our assessment that ECB President Draghi's recent proposal was not a game changer.  The recent pattern continued.  Essentially what this entails is buying the Australian and Canadian dollars and Mexican peso and some light posit…
Currency Positioning and Outlook Currency Positioning and Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Quick Data Review

August 10, 2012
The economic reports for Canada and the US have been off consensus. We briefly discuss these and the implications.
1. Canada's jobs report looked worse than it was. The Canadian dollar dropped on the news, but the BoC will not be swayed by the optics and it will retain its hawkish rhetoric. The Bloomberg consensus has looked for a minor 6k…
Quick Data Review Quick Data Review Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Jobs Data Good, but Good Enough?

August 03, 2012
The 172k rise in July private sector payrolls was well above the consensus forecasts and the best showing in 5 months. Hourly earnings rose 0.1% and the work week was unchanged. After a string of disappointing news this is surely, welcome, but it may not be sufficient to allay concerns at the Fed.
The three month moving av…
Jobs Data Good, but Good Enough? Jobs Data Good, but Good Enough? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Preview FOMC

July 31, 2012
The FOMC's 2-day meeting begins today, with a decision tomorrow around 2:15 pm EST. While the disappointing data in recent weeks raise the prospect of action by the Federal Reserve, most investors appear to be expecting a tweak in the statement to recognize the down shift in the economy and the forward looking guidance, with a action more li…
Preview FOMC Preview FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Short Note on US Preliminary Q2 GDP Estimate

July 26, 2012
The US reports its first estimate of Q2 GDP on July 27.  It is likely to be around the same pace as Q2 last year which was 1.3% annualized.  Last year the second quarter began the recovery from the 0.4% pace in Q1 that continued to the 3% pace in Q4 '11.  

However, this year Q2 will show a slowing in the expansion which was estimated at 1.9% i…
Short Note on US Preliminary Q2 GDP Estimate Short Note on US Preliminary Q2 GDP Estimate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Short Note On FX Market

July 25, 2012
The general scenario we outlined in our weekly outlook and reiterated yesterdayanticipated follow through selling of the foreign currencies at the start of the week before corrective pressures emerged near mid-week.  That is essentially what is happening today.  
Moreover, today's corrective price action is happening despite a continued poor …
Short Note On FX Market Short Note On FX Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Dismal US Retail Sales

July 16, 2012
The June retail sales report was simply dismal.  Not only did  sales decline by 0.5% in June rather than rise 0.2% as the consensus expected, but the April data were revised.  The measure used for GDP calculations, excludes gasoline, auto and building material sales fell 0.3% for the second consecutive month.  
While the May data was unrevised, A…
Dismal US Retail Sales Dismal US Retail Sales Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 16, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Four Developments Before the US Jobs Data

July 06, 2012
The US dollar is mixed as the market braces for the last main event of the week, namely the Us employment report.  The greenback is consolidating yesterday's outsized gains against the major currencies and is finding a better bid tone against the dollar-bloc.  
It may be more difficult than usual to anticipate the market's reaction to the…
Four Developments Before the US Jobs Data Four Developments Before the US Jobs Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2012 Rating: 5
Powered by Blogger.