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European Depositors Don't Take Fright from Cyprus

April 29, 2013
At the end of last week, the ECB reported that bailing in of Cypriot depositors did not scare other euro zone depositors. In fact, the ECB noted that deposits rose in March across the region, including in countries that have been suggested as potential candidates for the next aid package, including Slovenia, Malta, and Luxembourg.
Cyprus was the …
European Depositors Don't Take Fright from Cyprus European Depositors Don't Take Fright from Cyprus Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Two Weekend Developments

April 14, 2013
There have been two developments over the weekend that may impact trading when the markets reopen on April 15 in Asia. Technically, they both took place on Friday, but after many markets were closed.  
We begin with the largest drop in gold prices in two months. The expansion of central bank balance sheets was supposed to lead to the debasement o…
Two Weekend Developments Two Weekend Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 14, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: How Unique is Cyprus?

April 02, 2013
This Great Graphic was posted on Finansakrobat's blog and picked up from Barclay's Research, drawn from Haver Analytics and data from the IMF and ERBD. 
It depicts the non-performing loan rate and capital adequacy ratios of a select group of eastern and central European countries.  Slovenia and Slovakia are the only two euro area members…
Great Graphic: How Unique is Cyprus? Great Graphic: How Unique is Cyprus? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2013 Rating: 5
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Much News, Little Action

April 02, 2013
European markets re-opened for the first time since the middle of last week, and although there has been much news, the price action looks largely uninspired.  Sterling has lost some ground after the disappointing CIPS PMI and the $1.5200 area is proving a difficult area to convincingly overcome.  The euro is little changed from where it was late …
Much News, Little Action Much News, Little Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2013 Rating: 5
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Drivers in the Week Ahead

April 01, 2013
The US dollar is little changed here at the start of the second quarter, as European markets remain on holiday.  Short-covering is making the yen the best performing currency today.  The dollar traded below JPY93.50 for the first time March 6.  The next level of support is seen near JPY93.00. 

The yen's gains came in conjunction with a 2.1% …
Drivers in the Week Ahead Drivers in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2013 Rating: 5
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Best Posts from Q1 on Marc to Market

March 31, 2013
Here is our selection of our best posts from the first quarter.  We have not included the commentary on the short-term price action.  Instead, we have focused on the more interpretative pieces that seek to contribute to the understanding of the larger framework.
1.  Currency Wars:  Causes and Consequences:  We look closely at this concept that is…
Best Posts from Q1 on Marc to Market Best Posts from Q1 on Marc to Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 31, 2013 Rating: 5
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FT Video Interview with John Authers FT Video Interview with John Authers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Follow the Money

March 28, 2013
The ECB confirmed what the recent anecdotal reports hinted at, namely that deposits have been leaving Cyprus even before the crisis reached the fevered pace a couple of weeks ago.  
Specifically, earlier today it confirmed that roughly deposits fell by about 1 bln euros in February after a similar draw down in January.  In fact, since last May, th…
Follow the Money Follow the Money Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Unity of Opposites Makes Markets Nervous

March 28, 2013
There is a nervous calm in the foreign exchange market, where yen strength, on what many are dismissing as fiscal year end adjustments, is the main exception.  The focus remains in Europe and the main talking point is about the Cypriot capital controls.  Many observers, including some banks, are emphasizing the obvious contradiction between capit…
Unity of Opposites Makes Markets Nervous Unity of Opposites Makes Markets Nervous Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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One Euro or Two ?

March 27, 2013
There is a debate among market observers over whether the capital controls in Cyprus mean that there are, in effect, two euros now. It is argued by some investment banks and some economists that the capital controls create a Cypriot euro that is different from the euro elsewhere in the monetary union.
While we understand the argument, we continue …
One Euro or Two ? One Euro or Two ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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C3--Cyprus Capital Controls--What to Look for

March 27, 2013
Cyprus officials continue to suggest that the banks will re-open tomorrow. Before the banks can re-open some specific capital controls will be announced. It is a very thorny issue and there may yet be further delays
The purpose of the capital controls will determine their shape. Although Cypriot officials have a wide berth to impose capital con…
C3--Cyprus Capital Controls--What to Look for C3--Cyprus Capital Controls--What to Look for Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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Europe Still Center Stage

March 27, 2013
The US dollar continues to show a firm profile as European events continue to dominate investors' concerns. Given the holidays starting tomorrow and running into early next week for some, the first quarter is effectively over. The euro has slipped to new four month lows as the official response to the Cyprus crisis has undermined confidence.…
Europe Still Center Stage Europe Still Center Stage Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Selected Bank Cap Structures

March 26, 2013
This Great Graphic was created by Lombard Street Research.   It shows the capital structure of Bank of Cyprus compared with the two largest Italian and Spanish banks.  It notes that the Bank of Cyprus, which is ironically to become the good bank though the IMF had wanted it to be restructured as well, was funded 77% by deposits, 13% by wholesale,…
Great Graphic: Selected Bank Cap Structures Great Graphic: Selected Bank Cap Structures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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Morphing Crisis

March 26, 2013
During the Asian financial crisis, the chief economist of the IMF, Michael Mussa, once explained that there were three kinds of crises; liquidity, solvency and stupidity. The crisis in Europe continues to morph. 
European officials have succeeded in stabilizing the situation with words of assurances.  Despite the dramatic price action yesterday,…
Morphing Crisis Morphing Crisis Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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Cyprus: The Unique Template in Nine Theses

March 25, 2013
Based on the latest discoveries, such as seen in this picture from the European Space Agency, scientists are concluding that the universe is not inflating quite as fast as they previously thought. And so too, back here on Earth, we are finding things are not quite as they may have appeared.  The attempt to reflate the world economy is proving mo…
Cyprus: The Unique Template in Nine Theses Cyprus: The Unique Template in Nine Theses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Coming Depression in Cyprus

March 25, 2013
This Great Graphic was posted on Bruegel by Zsolt Darvas. It shows the growth and employment developments in a few selected countries that have been forced to restructure their banks. 

Darvas found that the financial services sector in Cyprus accounted for 9.2% of GDP and 5.6% of employment.  Although may be less than many would have anticipated…
Great Graphic: The Coming Depression in Cyprus Great Graphic: The Coming Depression in Cyprus Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead

March 25, 2013
The focus remains squarely on Cyprus.  It seems to be overshadowing everything else.  However, the price action shows a disconnect--the euro itself has been fairly resilient, though lagging behind the recovery of sterling, the dollar-bloc.  Spanish and Italian bond yields fell last week and continue to slip today.   Although there are many who see…
The Week Ahead The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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The Week Began with a Bang and Ending with a Whimper

March 22, 2013
The US dollar remains in relatively narrow ranges against most of the major currencies, inside yesterday's ranges. The notable exception is the Japanese yen, where a short covering squeeze that began yesterday continues.

The greenback is above the extreme low set in early Asia on Monday near JPY93.60, it appears poised for a retest. As a mi…
The Week Began with a Bang and Ending with a Whimper The Week Began with a Bang and Ending with a Whimper Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 22, 2013 Rating: 5
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Cyprus: Out of Frying Pan into Fire

March 21, 2013
Whew! Cyprus parliament began the week rejecting the tax on depositors.  It has been scrambling to find an alternative source of funds. As a percentage of GDP, the 10 bln euro EU package that has been offered to Cyprus is larger than the initial package for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Still 5.8 bln euros that Cyprus is being demanded to pony u…
Cyprus: Out of Frying Pan into Fire Cyprus: Out of Frying Pan into Fire Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Thursday's Seven

March 21, 2013
A nervous calm continues to cast a pall over the capital markets. The US dollar is narrowly mixed, but within the ranges seen yesterday. Asian markets were mixed, new that HSBC's flash Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in March from 50.4 in February failed to have much impact. European bourses opened softly and, encouraged by disappoi…
Thursday's Seven Thursday's Seven Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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