Results for Current Account Positions
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Thai Floods and Yen Appreciation

November 08, 2011
The dollar has slipped to almost JPY77.50, the lowest since the massive intervention last week. At today's lows, the dollar has given back almost 50% of what the intervention had achieved. It is still mind boggling the magnitude of the intervention. In one fell swoop the BOJ accounted for about 20% of the average daily yen turnover. In one fel…
Thai Floods and Yen Appreciation Thai Floods and Yen Appreciation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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ECB Gives an Inch, BOE Doesn't; and Bernanke?

September 08, 2011
The BOE and ECB left rates on hold as the vast majority expected.  The ECB's new staff forecasts shave the lower end of its growth forecasts for this year and next and Trichet sounds significantly more neutral than hawkish.  However, by noting that rates remain accommodative, at his second to last ECB meeting, Trichet did not move very far.  
T…
ECB Gives an Inch, BOE Doesn't; and Bernanke? ECB Gives an Inch, BOE Doesn't; and Bernanke? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro Crushed, Dollar Firm

July 18, 2011
The US dollar has begun the new week on a strong note, although there appears to have been little progress on the debt ceiling talks.  The European debt crisis is simply eclipsing the US debt situation as there seems to be a a consensus that at the last minute US politicians will find a resolution.  The European debt situation is seen a more intra…
Euro Crushed, Dollar Firm Euro Crushed, Dollar Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 18, 2011 Rating: 5
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How to Think about Intervention Risks

July 14, 2011
Officials from Japan and Switzerland have stepped up their rhetoric protesting the price action that has propelled their respective currencies sharply higher. Contrary to market anxiety the risk of intervention remains low and lower for the SNB than the BOJ.
The BOJ has a track record of being more interventionist. Many market participants continue…
How to Think about Intervention Risks How to Think about Intervention Risks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 14, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Yields to Euro, Sterling Recovers

June 02, 2011
The main development today has been the full recovery of the euro from yesterday's North American slide, which was in part fueled by Moody's rating slash of Greece.  The euro recovered through Asia and then accelerated in a holiday-thin (Ascension Day) European session.  A relatively healthy reception at a Spanish bond auction and reports …
Dollar Yields to Euro, Sterling Recovers Dollar Yields to Euro, Sterling Recovers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Yen Notes

March 08, 2011
The yen is largely sidelined as the market's focus is elsewhere--ECB policy trajectory, the European debt crisis, MENA, etc. This is reflected by the fact that dollar-yen volatility (implied 3-month) is sitting on its 3-year low near 9.55%.
At 45 bp, the US-Japan 2-year interest rate spread is a few bp above its 100-day moving average. At 218 …
Yen Notes Yen Notes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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When Will Portugal Ask for Assistance

March 07, 2011
Portugal will be selling 750 mln to 1 bln euro of 2 1/2 year bonds on Wednesday. It will be the first bond offering since the syndicated offering in mid-Feb. It has been trying to buy back bonds that expire this year, but these have generally seen lukewarm interest. Portugal is trying to raise funds not only to cover this year's deficit, but i…
When Will Portugal Ask for Assistance When Will Portugal Ask for Assistance Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Canada and Oil: More Complicated than One Might Suspect

March 07, 2011
It seems clear. Canada is one of the few developed countries that is a net exporter of oil. Oil prices have soared and the Canadian dollar is at its best level against the US dollar since late 2007. But a closer look suggests a more complicated picture. Since February 15, oil prices have shot up by around 25%, while the Canadian dollar has rallied…
Canada and Oil: More Complicated than One Might Suspect Canada and Oil: More Complicated than One Might Suspect Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Grenback Under Pressure, but Consolidative Tone

February 15, 2011
The euro remains vulnerable. The Q4 10 GDP figures were slightly disappointing (0.3% rather than 0.4% consensus), but the adverse impact of the weather and the stronger PMI readings this this year encourage the market to look past these figures. Same is true with the ZEW survey. The current assessment remains strong, but the future expectations at…
Grenback Under Pressure, but Consolidative Tone Grenback Under Pressure, but Consolidative Tone Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 15, 2011 Rating: 5
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Understanding the FX Drivers

February 02, 2011
Many investors are concluding that the Federal Reserve will lag not only many emerging markets, but also a wider number of European countries. Yesterday’s PMIs drive home the point that growth at the start of the New Year is accelerating. This helps embolden the risk appetite at the same time that the market is being told by European officials tha…
Understanding the FX Drivers Understanding the FX Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro and Swiss franc Outlook

January 13, 2011
As the European debt crisis reemerged as a central driver of the foreign exchange market in early November 2010, the euro slumped more than 10% against the Swiss franc. Given the size of the Swiss capital markets, global funds managers typically do not have large exposure in Switzerland. Many of the world class Swiss companies have duel listings a…
Euro and Swiss franc Outlook Euro and Swiss franc Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 13, 2011 Rating: 5
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FX Drivers

October 27, 2010
The US dollar is retaining its new found firm tone. Position adjusting ahead of next week’s key events continues to dominate, encouraged by the loss of the dollar’s downside momentum.
Softer Australian CPI (2.8% in Q3 from 3.1% in Q2 sent the Australian dollar down the most today, about 1.2% as rate hike ideas pulled back (scratched) or pushed out…
FX Drivers FX Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 27, 2010 Rating: 5
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Current Account Targets

October 22, 2010
US Treasury Secretary Geithner has proposing that G20 members restrain large current account imbalances. Over the last quarter of a century such ideas were mostly aimed against the US, however, like the currency war language, the US has coopted the issue and has managed to turn it around.
He is also turning on its head the traditional burden that …
Current Account Targets Current Account Targets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 22, 2010 Rating: 5
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The Broken Cash Register

October 15, 2010
Opinion seems nearly universal that what we are currently experiencing is not the typical business cycle with which we are familiar. Besides being the end of a long speculative bubble and the magnitudes involved, the significance of what is happening is difficult to fathom. To the extent that some have thought about the bigger picture, the discus…
The Broken Cash Register The Broken Cash Register Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2010 Rating: 5
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Overview Ahead of US Employment Report

October 08, 2010
The US dollar is firmer amid last minute position agajust ahead of the employment data. With another round of asset purchases continues to seem probable, even though FOMC voting member Bullard and non-voting Dallas Fed’s Fisher indicated it is not yet a done deal.
Underlying sentiment is extremely dollar negative. In fact, the extreme sentiment re…
Overview Ahead of US Employment Report Overview Ahead of US Employment Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 08, 2010 Rating: 5
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Brazil Extends Rally

September 13, 2010
The Brazilian real is off to a firm start, promising to extend its rally for the fifth consecutive week--something that it has been unable to do in the past five months. There are four drivers and they may, taken together, rise the ire of officials who want to prevent further deterioration of the current account position. In July, Brazil's 12-…
Brazil Extends Rally Brazil Extends Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 13, 2010 Rating: 5
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The Yen Conundrum

September 10, 2010
Seventy years ago next month, Winston Churchill described Soviet foreign policy as a “riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. That now may be apropos of the Japanese yen.
Japan is a country that appears to be literally in decline. The population has begun shrinking, as has the work force. It has been almost 21 years since the Japanese stock…
The Yen Conundrum The Yen Conundrum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2010 Rating: 5
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Developments in Europe, UK, Japan and Sweden

June 09, 2010
Tomorrow’s ECB meeting is drawing attention today. No one expects a change in rates. Instead the focus is on liquidity provisions. A news wire report claiming that the ECB would announce an extension of some facilities.
There is some thought that given the systemic strains, the ECB may want to take additional measures to help smooth the maturation…
Developments in Europe, UK, Japan and Sweden Developments in Europe, UK, Japan and Sweden Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 09, 2010 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on Euro, Sterling and Yen

March 19, 2010
Euro: When the range breaks it could really break. The euro has again frustrated the bottom pickers and the perma-dollar bears. It is has again been turned back after flirting with the upper end of its month long trading range. This time it was concern that Europe appeared increasingly divided over whether there should be a regional solution or sho…
Thoughts on Euro, Sterling and Yen Thoughts on Euro, Sterling and Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 19, 2010 Rating: 5
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Implications of the Euro Zone's Current Account Deficit

March 18, 2010
The euro zone reported one of its largest monthly current account deficits on record. The 16.7 bln euro short fall in January compares with a 9.8 bln surplus in December. There seems to be a seasonal factor that makes the January shortfall typically large. In January 2009 the current account deficit was 19.9 bln euros and in January 2008 the defic…
Implications of the Euro Zone's Current Account Deficit Implications of the Euro Zone's Current Account Deficit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 18, 2010 Rating: 5
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