Results for $CHF
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Great Graphic: Euro-Swiss Shows Elevated Systemic Risk

May 21, 2018
The Swiss National Bank's decision in January 2015 to remove the cap on the Swiss franc (floor on the euro) that it has set at CHF1.20 is seared into the memory of a generation of foreign exchange participants.  It is not exactly clear where the euro bottomed in the frenzied activity that followed the SNB's surprise move.  Bloomberg record…
Great Graphic: Euro-Swiss Shows Elevated Systemic Risk Great Graphic:  Euro-Swiss Shows Elevated Systemic Risk Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar Power

May 20, 2018
There are several trends in the capital markets at a high-level.  The euro and yen's decline has coincided with sustained rallies in European and Japanese equity benchmarks.  Emerging market equities and currencies have been trending lower. 
There are two other trends that arguably are reinforcing if not causing the other trends.  Both oil pric…
Dollar Power Dollar Power Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2018 Rating: 5
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Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures

April 30, 2018
Sentiment has swung back in favor of the dollar.   The price action has forced many non-believers to take seriously the possibility that interest rates do ultimately matter and the perceived desire of the Trump Administration does not stand in the way of a stronger dollar.  
Speculative market positioning is slower to change, and that is what the C…
Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar Tone Improves

April 21, 2018
The US dollar was broadly higher last week.  It seemed as if the inexorable rise in US interest rates may be beginning to give it some traction.  The US 10-year yield made a marginal new four-year high, creeping closer to 3%, while the US premium over Germany surpassed 300 bp for the first time. 
The Dollar Index's four-day advancing streak, wh…
Dollar Tone Improves Dollar Tone Improves Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2018 Rating: 5
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Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch

April 18, 2018
The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against major and most emerging market currencies.  Sterling, which has become a market darling, hit an air pocket after softer than expected CPI.  
UK headline CPI rose 0.1% in March, while the market expected a 0.3% increase.  The recently introduced preferred measure, CPIH slipped to 2.3% from 2.5%, the we…
Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 18, 2018 Rating: 5
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Winner and Losers in a Trade War

March 12, 2018
The prospects of a trade war have increased.  The second year of the Trump Administration has begun with a serious provocation.  Duties and quotas on washing machines and solar panels were consistent with the defenses against dumping and unfair subsidies of previous administrations.  
However, the tariffs slapped on aluminum and steel were exceptio…
Winner and Losers in a Trade War Winner and Losers in a Trade War Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 12, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Potential Topping Pattern for Euro

March 08, 2018
The euro appears to be potentially carving out a topping pattern.  Recall that after correcting lower last September and October, the euro rallied for three months through January before weakening 1.75% in February.  That was its biggest decline since February 2017.  
The euro's high print was actually on February 16 near $1.2555, when it poste…
Great Graphic: Potential Topping Pattern for Euro Great Graphic:  Potential Topping Pattern for Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 08, 2018 Rating: 5
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A Brief Word

January 29, 2018
(Beginning the second half of two-week business trip in Europe.  Next stop Luxembourg)
The US dollar is modestly firmer, but nothing to suggest a outright correction rather than consolidation.  However, have a dramatic drop over the past month, much more than we think is justified by macroeconomic developments and interest rates, we think the dolla…
A Brief Word A Brief Word Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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