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Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence

March 02, 2019
The important events take place in the second half of the week ahead: the ECB meeting and the US employment report.  A dovish hold by the ECB is the most likely outcome.  US jobs growth is bound to slow from the heady 304k gain in January, but there won't be anything in it that lends credence to ideas that the world's largest economy is on…
Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 02, 2019 Rating: 5
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Did Powell Toss in the Towel or was it a Tactical Retreat?

January 31, 2019
Overview: The Fed's dovish tone and earnings news are the main drivers of the capital markets today, helping lift stocks, bonds, and currencies.  Large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, Hong Kong, China's CSI 300, India, and Indonesia, all rose more than 1%, putting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index in a good position to extend its rally …
Did Powell Toss in the Towel or was it a Tactical Retreat? Did Powell Toss in the Towel or was it a Tactical Retreat? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2019 Rating: 5
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Euro Pares Yesterday's Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31

January 25, 2019
Overview:  The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Sterling pushed above $1.31, an 11-week high on news that the DUP would support Prime Minister's Plan B that calls for limits on the backstop with Ireland, something that the EC and Ireland have indicated are not on the table.  Gl…
Euro Pares Yesterday's Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31 Euro Pares Yesterday's Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 25, 2019 Rating: 5
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Europe Moves to the Center Ring

January 12, 2019
In recent weeks, the macro story focused on the shifting outlook for Fed policy and the Sino-American trade relationship.  There is unlikely to be further progress on either issue in the week ahead.  The Fed won't raise interest rates until toward the middle of the year at the earliest.  The government shutdown will limit new readings on the …
Europe Moves to the Center Ring Europe Moves to the Center Ring Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 12, 2019 Rating: 5
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Dollar Benefits from being Less Ugly

December 16, 2018
The US dollar rose against all the major and most of the emerging market currencies last week.  The Dollar Index made a new marginal high for the year.  Although US jobs growth disappointed in November and the flash Markit PMI and manufacturing output was weaker than expected, poor data abroad helped underpin the dollar by default.  UK Prime Mini…
Dollar Benefits from being Less Ugly Dollar Benefits from being Less Ugly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 16, 2018 Rating: 5
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Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment

December 10, 2018
Overview:  Investors angst over trade tensions and Brexit continue remains elevated, and poor Chinese and Japanese economic news played on global growth fears.  Equities continue to slog lower.  Bond yields are little changed, and the dollar is lower against most of the major currencies.  Among emerging market currencies, those in eastern and cent…
Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 10, 2018 Rating: 5
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Stock Rally Arrested, but Bond and Oil Advance Continues, leaving Dollar in a Lurch Stock Rally Arrested, but Bond and Oil Advance Continues, leaving Dollar in a Lurch Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 04, 2018 Rating: 5
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Equities and Bonds Jump While the Dollar Slumps

November 07, 2018
Overview: The dollar has fallen against nearly every currency.  It had been moving lower at the start of the week, but what seems like a correction broadened and deepened following the US midterm election.  The outcome was largely in line with expectations for the Republicans to hold the Senate and the Democrats to take a majority of the House for…
Equities and Bonds Jump While the Dollar Slumps Equities and Bonds Jump While the Dollar Slumps Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2018 Rating: 5
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Does the Dollar have Legs?

October 20, 2018
The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week while several of the typically volatile emerging market currencies, like the Turkish lira, South African rand, and Brazilian real appreciated. The US President's criticism of the Federal Reserve, shared by many noted economists, including Nobel-prize winner Krugman (just …
Does the Dollar have Legs? Does the Dollar have Legs? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 20, 2018 Rating: 5
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Slower Chinese Growth and Italy and Spanish Woes Weigh on Sentiment Ahead of the Weekend Slower Chinese Growth and Italy and Spanish Woes Weigh on Sentiment Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 19, 2018 Rating: 5
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